Once the United Kingdom regains its independence what future will there be for the United Kingdom Independence Party?
After Brexit has become a reality, what are the UKIP campaigners supposed to say on the doorstep?
Sometimes a political party can pick up protest votes – the Lib Dems used to be good at this before being tarnished by office. But it isn’t really enough. There needs to be an understanding that a political party has a role. What will UKIP be for?
We are not quite there yet, of course. At present UKIP can still claim they have a role in holding the Government’s “feet to the fire”. And there are still some Remainers who refuse to accept the result of the EU referendum.
Yet the decision of Nigel Farage to stand down as Leader suggests that he really feels his work is done. Each day that passes sees greater acceptance – at home and abroad, from supporters and opponents – that Brexit will take place.
Once Article 50 is “triggered” – which is expected to happen in January or February – then our membership automatically lapses within two years. Deal or no deal. To paraphrase that Vote Leave supporter John Cleese by 2019 our EU membership will be no more. It will have ceased to be, expired…
For individual members of UKIP this will be a cause for celebration. But for its viability as a political party it will be devastating.
Some of their 22 members of the European Parliament may feel rather conflicted. The £120,000 a year they can each claim in expenses – without the need for anything so vulgar as receipts – will be gone.
Then there is the salary itself: each MEP is paid £78,000 a year. There is another £200,000 a year each to employ staff. On top of that UKIP gets over £1 million a year as part of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the European Parliament.
How will UKIP survive without all that EU funding?
“I know that virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives,” said Nigel Farage in a speech to the European Parliament recently. Well from 2019 he and his fellow UKIP MEPs – along with their paid cronies – will need to find real jobs as they face up to the hard reality of victory.
More fundamental than the lack of money for UKIP though will be its lack of purpose. It could change its name of course to identify some new mission. But name recognition is hard won. Also trying to adopt some new objective will cause great division. It is hardly a united crew at present. I’m sure the new Leader Diane James will do her best.
However the situation in Wales illustrates what a mess they are in. Nathan Gill is Leader of UKIP in Wales and a member of the Welsh Assembly. But he doesn’t sit in the UKIP Group in the Welsh Assembly but as an independent. The situation is not tenable.
Meanwhile in England several UKIP councillors have defected to the Conservatives – usually returning to their political home. Steve Stanbury, the former Director of UKIP and Alex Phillips, who was UKIP’s head of media for two years, have also joined the Tories.
Many argue that UKIP’s existence was crucial in David Cameron’s decision to call an in/out referendum on our EU membership. Perhaps. Although there were also growing demands from within the Conservative Party and from a majority of the general public. In any event – as Winston Churchill discovered in the 1945 General Election – gratitude for past achievements is rather grudging from the electorate.
Nigel Farage, in his final speech as Leader, recalled that he started his political journey during the Eastleigh by-election in 1994 – when as the UKIP candidate he only beat Screaming Lord Sutch of the Monster Raving Loony Party by a couple of hundred votes. The worry for UKIP will be that if they don’t disband they risk falling back to that level of support.