“Aberdeenshire business owner wins Presidential election” was the headline in the Buchan Observer when it reported the news that Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States.
Trump’s mother was from the Hebridean island of Lewis – she grew up speaking Gaelic and her father was a fisherman and a crofter. The Donald also owns two golf courses in Scotland, each worth many millions of pounds and each providing a boost to the local economy through employment. So his Scots credentials are impressive. “I do feel Scottish,” he said when he flew on to Stornoway to visit his cousins in 2008.
Now we have the prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence – this time taking place under a Trump presidency. Will he pledge that Scotland would be at the “front of the queue” for a free trade deal, as he did over Brexit? Or will he warn of the dangers of breaking up the Union?
In a sense, he is damned if he does, and damned if he doesn’t. He could be accused of financial self-interest for expressing any view. Equally, with his proclamations regarding Brexit in mind, he could be accused of double standards if he chooses to say nothing, thereby indicating he is anti-independence.
Trump’s views on Scottish independence are ambiguous and erratic, but he is sure to be asked about them at some point.
Last time there was a referendum, in 2014, he tweeted: “Good luck to the people of Scotland, whatever their decision may be on Thursday. The whole world is watching—really exciting!”
So far as we can tell his views seem to vary according to the Scottish Nationalist Party’s behaviour with regard to wind turbines.
In 2012 he wrote to Alex Salmond, the SNP leader who was then the First Minister of Scotland. Trump assured Salmond he would be “your greatest cheerleader if you can change or modify your stance on at least the inappropriately placed turbines.” It had been all smiles a few years earlier when they posed for photographs and Trump said of Salmond: “He’s an amazing man.”
But after finding Salmond uncooperative Trump told him: “Your idea of independence is ‘Gone With the Wind’.” It was a “mad march to oblivion.”
“Scotland can never become independent under your leadership,” Trump told him, “because thousands of industrial wind turbines will destroy your tourism sector and are not economically viable without the substantial help of your already overburdened taxpayers – sadly you will not be able to exist without the financial help of England.”
So it sounds as though Trump addresses the Scottish independence issue as a business proposition rather than an issue of principle.
When the President is not always noted for his diplomatic caution, I suspect he will try and avoid offering a celebrity endorsement to either side. Given that he managed to remain neutral in 2014 he has all the more reason to do so in 2019 on whenever the next one comes along.
Of course that would require some self-discipline given the media will doubtless goad him into expressing a view.
If he does manage to keep out of this particular campaign, it may be just as well. Trump’s message might carry some clout in the Outer Hebrides, but for all his claims to be one of them, many other Scots might resent his guidance as interference.
