“What will Brexit mean?”
That has been a question asked in an ever more petulant, shrill, and impatient tone – usually by those hostile to the whole project. The terms have rather changed. Before the referendum, the contention was that it was for the Vote Leave campaign to set out what would happen.
The response came back that it would mean ending our membership of the Single Market so that we could control our borders, set our laws and not pay any membership fee.
Now the Remainers are anxious to see that just because we have decided to leave the EU it does not mean that we should rid ourselves of the Single Market and all the onerous rules and regulations that go with it.
Six weeks on from the referendum, we already have a pretty good clue that Brexit will mean wider trading opportunities around the world.
“What would Remain look like?” was a question that BBC viewers heard far less often during the campaign. The implication was that all was settled and calm with the European Union and thus the question was superfluous. But the reality for the EU is ever more chaotic and dysfunctional.
The attempt to agree a trade deal with Canada has been a nightmare of complexity. The haggling has been going on for an extraordinary seven years.
Jean-Luc Demarty, the European Union’s director general for trade, sounds like a broken man. He warns the EU will be “close to death” should the deal collapse after all this effort. Yet it may well.
“If the EU can’t do a deal with Canada, then … who the heck can you do a deal with?” Canadian Trade Min. Freeland via @POLITICOEurope
— Alex Pigman (@AlexRPigman) June 1, 2016
The struggle and delay is scarcely surprising. For a deal to be reached, all 28 member states of the EU have to agree terms. It is reported that Romania and Bulgaria are unwilling to do so. They are cutting up rough over an (unrelated) matter of visa entry to Canada. Doubtless if Demarty manages to placate them, some other country will come up with special demands.
The deal was due to be finalised at a summit in October, but now there are fears that the whole thing could drift on a few more years – or possibly collapse altogether.
Spare a thought for Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s Trade Minister – and her predecessor Ed Fast and his predecessor Peter Van Loan and his predecessor Stockwell Day.
One Trade Minister is succeeded by another. Their children become teenagers and then adults. Yet still the tortuous, exasperating negotiations with the Eurocrats continues – many of whom are not exactly true believers in the mission but see their role as to block competition from the rest of world.
#CETA EU trade policy 'close to death' if Canada deal fails https://t.co/76u3yjEWeJ via @POLITICOEurope
— Bernhard Schinwald (@brnshnwd) August 2, 2016
Before the referendum result the Canadians officially cautioned against Brexit – perhaps as a result of some private arm twisting instigated by Downing Street. But now Freeland is adopting a very different tone. She suspects that a proper free trade agreement with the UK is highly desirable and eminently achievable. She says of the UK: “We have a very robust relationship – we are not just friends, we are family.”
Of course a UK-Canada trade deal will still be a major task. Also we in the UK are a bit out of practice in having the freedom to negotiate for ourselves.
Yet it will be an initiative of those who believe in what they are doing and determined to accomplish the task in a straightforward manner – not always on the look-out for mind numbing devices to frustrate the process.
It will be two nations with a shared history and common language seeking agreement. That is a rather different proposition for Canada than dealing with 28 nations.
What is the betting that long after Canada and the UK – as two proud independent nations – are trading freely with each other, the EU is still squabbling and prevaricating rather than closing the deal?
