“Sexual harassment ‘at epidemic levels’ in UK universities” proclaimed the front-page headline of yesterday morning’s Guardian newspaper.
It was another story asserting the existence of a “rape culture” within academia where the vulnerable – usually women – are victimised with shocking regularity.
But does the claim really stack up?
Guardian front page, Monday 6 March 2017: 'Epidemic' of sex harassment in universities pic.twitter.com/K14ubo1YVA
— The Guardian (@guardian) March 5, 2017
There is – of course – no actual definition for “epidemic” sexual harassment – although it certainly sounds impressive.
But research by Heat Street suggests that – according to the Guardian‘s own evidence – sexual harassment is far less prevalent at universities than in the general population.
In fact, the paper’s dramatic claim of “epidemic” is only propped up by very judicious use of incomplete facts, plus assertions from a variety of interested parties.
The main proof cited by the newspaper are the results of Freedom of Information requests to 120 of Britain’s 135 universities.
They found uncovered 296 allegations of “sexual harassment, misconduct and gender violence” against staff in the past six years.
169 were claims by students and 127 came from other members of staff. That can sound like a lot – until you put it into context.
296 claims over six years is 49.33 claims per year.
Divided up between the 120 universities cited, that is 0.41 claims per institution per year. Does that sound like an epidemic to you?
The claim is even harder to support when considered as a proportion of the UK student population as a whole.
Stats from Universities UK say there are about 2,280,000 students in the UK, and 410,000 staff – making the potential pool of victims 2,690,000 people.
In any given year, 49 of them made an allegation. That is a rate of one per 53,800 people, or 0.002%.
This rate is much, much lower than for the general population. A 2013 statistical report by the Home Office and Ministry of Justice, based on national crime figures, suggested that among the general population around 1.45% of people are victims of a sexual crime every year.
The report says that’s made up of 2.5% of women and 0.4% of men – and took pains to emphasise that the “vast majority” of allegations relate to minor crimes.
In order for the university figures to match national levels, there would need to be around 750 unreported allegations for every one picked up by the Guardian.
It is also worth remembering that these are allegations, not confirmed incidents – and allegations sometimes turn out not to be true.
The Guardian likely realised that this is not a very solid foundation from which to assert that British academia is a cesspit of sexual harassment.
The way to get around this, of course, is to imply that the *real* number of incidents is much, much higher than their data can show.
The Guardian‘s news report uses the evocative phrase “the tip of the iceberg” twice. It cites one named academic, three anonymous alleged victims, a lobbyist and two lawyers, who all agree the problem is far bigger than can be proved.
Curiously, both lawyers work for the same firm – McAllister Olivarius, which has made suing universities a major part of its practice – both in the UK and using Title IX legislation in the United States.
It is Ann Olivarius who obligingly uses the word “epidemic”, allowing the Guardian to repeat it in the headline. She also takes the opportunity to call for a whole raft of extra laws to combat the problem – both of which could potentially lead to more lucrative cases for her business, giving readers cause to be at least a little suspicious.
There is undoubtedly sexual misconduct at universities, and few would contest that cases could be handled better.
But in its eagerness to declare a national emergency, the Guardian and its talking heads are left relying on conjecture, bluster and spin. It doesn’t cut muster.
