As I write I am headed to vote in Oundle, Northamptonshire, in the beautiful East Midlands constituency of Corby and East Northants which I used to represent. Postal votes can be tricky, and on this matter, I simply did not wish to risk mine getting lost. It’s been a truly global referendum, where expats for Leave and Remain have been trotted out by both sides; Richard Branson for Remain, Lord Ashcroft for Leave. The votes of expats have been sought by the government, who think they will vote Remain. Not this expat.
If Britain votes to Leave the European Union I reckon we will see a long period of sustained economic growth, and a leaner, meaner EU, with Greece being unshackled from the Euro and allowed to float the drachma so her shipping can become competitive again.
But the passion around the European referendum has been truly heartening, and it has made me see politics in a completely different light. I was a truly tribal Conservative who used to say ‘I bleed blue’. As of last night, when I attended the Channel Four Jeremy Paxman chaired debate on Brexit, and found myself standing next to the Labour MP for Leave, John Mann of Bassetlaw, begging to hear from him about Labour turnout in working areas – predicted to go for Leave – that has finished.
What a strange coalition there has been on both sides of the fence. And I do feel that Leave has been the rebel side. I felt an overwhelming, even tear-inducing, sense of gratitude to the Labour voters who featured in John Harris’s superb film in Stoke. I can’t donate to the Labour party without being expelled from the Tory party, but I will find a charity John recommends and donate to that instead. I have buried the hatchet with UKIP, a party I used to pour scorn on – I have worked with the journalist Raheem Kassam, with whom I used to be at daggers drawn – and yesterday nobody was more inspiring than the left-wing Labour voting mystery writer Dara, who probably hates everything else I stand for politically but agrees with me that the EU is bad for jobs, wages and democracy.
My favourite tweet of the referendum was from a LibDem:
Even pockets of the electorate supposedly all Remain contain Leave voters.
What the Referendum has shown me, too, is real patriotism on both sides of the fence and a willingness to drop all loyalties and affiliations that come before your country. I do not care how cross David Cameron may be, much though I like and respect him, at my campaigning for Vote Leave. It makes no odds. Those Leave Cabinet Ministers who went Remain for preferment, and I know one or two, will have a hangover with the party faithful and have almost certainly destroyed forever their chances of No. 10.
I feel much less of a tribal Tory now. I am for the UK’s self-determination first and foremost. A new Prime Minster, if we vote to Remain after government scaremongering, is, I feel, likely to be a Leave supporter. In this vote we had a Remain supporter at the top who did not hesitate to use the apparatus of government to spin for his point of view. But the Conservative party members will have their say soon.
Paradoxically, David Cameron and George Osborne’s best hope is for a Brexit vote. A Conservative party who felt the relief of coming out of M. Juncker’s grip would be in an upbeat, forgiving and unifying mood. A party who saw David Cameron win despite their wishes and then try to sack pro-Brexit Cabinet ministers would unleash the vengeance of hell upon the Tory Remainers in parliament.
The two main political parties do not have a divine right to exist. Labour found that in Scotland after another referendum that their leadership bungled. They won a Pyrrhic victory. At the last election I cared about a Tory win with every bone in my body. At this moment, even as a die-hard Conservative, party politics seems much less important.