In the 1936 HG Wells film Things to Come Theotocopulos declares: “We shall hate you more if you succeed than if you fail”.
One coping mechanism for Remain supporters as they absorbed the shock of the EU referendum result was to comfort themselves that the whole thing would be a disaster. They looked forward to the vindication of Project Fear.
Part of the message had been that merely the decision to leave would prove an immediate calamity – the devastation would be well under way even before we ceased our EU membership.
It followed from all this that Remain voters looked forward to the consolation of smugly listening to their friends, relatives and work colleagues who voted for Brexit pleading for forgiveness. Millions of those who voted Leave would be wailing on their knees, overcome with “buyer’s remorse”.
"Brexit will be an immediate disaster!"
*no immediate disaster*
"Brexit will be a gradual disaster!"https://t.co/Mtg1EUVXjU— Kieran Corcoran (@kj_corcoran) August 25, 2016
Doubtless many Remain supporters still feel like that – but 11 weeks on, all the early indications are that they are deluding themselves. Without skipping a beat, the business leaders who threatened to quit the UK if Vote Leave won now talk of expansion and confidence in the new trading opportunities.
Six days after the referendum, 71% of economists, in a survey by Bloomberg, predicted Britain would go into recession this year. A couple of months later they have all dived for cover as the steady flow of upbeat economic data is published.
Some polling published this week by Lord Ashcroft showed that 59% of people believe that “Britain is on the right track”.
59% think UK is on right track; 41% on wrong path – new @LordAshcroft poll of 8,000 voters https://t.co/mZv6ySwSE0 pic.twitter.com/Gd4LWgSWec
— Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie) September 4, 2016
The same poll also found little doubt as to what Brexit should mean. 81% agreed that continuing to pay into the EU Budget would be incompatible with Brexit while 79% felt the same about free movement from EU states.
One part of Project Fear was that Brexit would mean the break up of the United Kingdom. The idea was that Scots would be so indignant that they would vote for an independent Scotland so that it could join the EU.
Given that it would also have to join the Euro, this was always a bit far-fetched. A YouGov poll last week on Scottish independence found 40% in favour and 46% against – up one point on the previous poll.
Another recent YouGov poll showed 45% felt Britain was right to leave the EU with 43% who disagreed. Brexit was ahead by 46% to 42% in another poll. There was also very strong opposition to calling a second referendum on the EU: 34% thought it would be “acceptable”; 56% felt it would be “unacceptable”.
For the next government to call a second referendum on the EU would be…
Acceptable: 34%
Unacceptable: 56%
(via YouGov)— Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 19, 2016
Keep in mind that before the referendum most opinion surveys had Remain ahead.
It may well be that support for Brexit is even stronger than the polls show. In the absence of comfort from the pollsters, some Remainiacs have taken to the streets for the odd “March for Europe” to shout with great ardour: “EU. We love you!”
@OwenJones84 at #marchforeurope pic.twitter.com/7RavWshi2N
— Dr Alan Firth (@diponte) September 3, 2016
The comedian Geoff Norcott, performing at the Edinburgh Festival declared he was puzzled to meet Remainers who told him the result had been determined by “thick” Leave voters.
“Thick?” he said; “The Remain campaign waited until after 23 June to stage their street protest”.
The Remain marches held on Saturday saw numbers well down on one that took place on July 2nd. At the one in Cardiff only 75 turned up.
The one in London had, at a push, four thousand people. The main impact it had was someone running off with Eddie Izzard’s pink beret.
Just going on the March for Europe @marchforeurope pic.twitter.com/St0MkIlStZ
— Eddie Izzard (@eddieizzard) September 3, 2016
Others Remain supporters are apparently showing their devotion to the EU by emigrating to New Zealand. I suppose it wouldn’t make that much more sense to move to France, Ireland, Denmark, or Sweden only to find the people of those nations voting to follow Britain’s example.
What is clear is that the UK will leave the EU. There will not be a second referendum – and even if there were one, Brexit would win by a larger margin.
Brexit will, as the Prime Minister is fond of patiently repeating, mean Brexit. For their own mental well-being Remain supporters should accept that they lost and move on.
