Considering. That’s the word of the Labour Party conference. ‘How are you?’ ‘Good. Considering.’
There is a sombre mood in Liverpool at this year’s conference. Moderates control the delegations so there is a feeling of control – the leadership will not be able to force anything through.
So, on defence there will be no flashpoint over Trident – the issue will be managed off the agenda. This means that Labour’s official policy will remain full support for the nuclear deterrent.
And on the party rules, while they are being changed to ensure that the leader is automatically on any future ballot, other changes favour moderates. For example, the addition of representatives from Scotland and Wales on the ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) tips the balance slightly against the leader. Stalemate.
However, there is no celebration on the part of the moderates who dominate the conference floor. Precisely because of their politics they know how bad things are. A debate on Trident would have been divisive but it would have resulted in a very public show of support for the defence of the realm. That would have sent a significant signal to the country at large. As it is, the public image of Labour is defined by Jeremy Corbyn, whose views are anathema to most voters.
This is the problem for the moderates – they need rows and high profile victories to cut through the fog of conference. Anything that is wrangled offstage and managed behind the scenes is a victory for Jeremy. Though, in reality, everything is a victory for him because of the size of his win over Owen Smith. That hangs over everything. Not because it has resolved anything – it hasn’t.
The vote of no confidence wasn’t because MPs doubted that Corbyn was supported by members but because the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) thought he wasn’t up to the job.
Hanging over everything is the question of what next? Talk to MPs and their focus is Momentum. Local party memberships have doubled, sometimes even tripled.
Walk down any street in my part of London – Peckham – and you pass the houses of three or four party members. This would be reassuring if they were a new force for campaigning in support of their local MP and councillors. But they aren’t. A common complaint from experienced activists is that you never see any of the new members on the doorstep – their only campaigning is virtual, in the echo chamber of social media.
That seems to be changing – but not in a good way. Momentum are marshalling their forces to make them into a national and local organisation that can focus on ousting Labour incumbents.
The post-conference battleground is becoming clearer. The PLP showed immense discipline this summer in remaining united. They knew that they had to hang together or else they would hang separately.
The problem is that at the end of every sitting week MPs go home to their constituencies. There they face trench warfare. As ever, Corbyn has sent a signal to his supporters about what he wants.
The recent Boundary Commission reports are a massive blow to Labour. Many seats are changed beyond recognition or abolished. The new seats are based on out of date electoral registers and under-record voters in urban, mainly Labour, areas. A Labour leader should be vigorously opposing this. Instead, Corbyn has indicated that he is minded to accept the recommendations and move on.
Why would any Labour leader want to do that? Because the disruption associated with changing boundaries offers a chance to bring in reselection through the backdoor. If seats are going then there should be an open contest for the new ones, goes the argument.
This presents MPs with an unedifying choice: either find an accommodation with Momentum or go down fighting. Most will fight, but how many will succeed?
That, in the end, is why the mood of conference is sombre. Jeremy Corbyn has called for unity. Mainstream MPs fear he means the unity of the graveyard.