It is less than two months since the historic victory for Vote Leave in the EU referendum and increasingly the gloomadon poppers are facing humiliation.
Economists polled by Reuters predicted a 9,500 jump in unemployment claims in July due to Brexit. But the number of unemployment claims fell by 8,600.
The Guardian described this as “a big surprise”.
Guardian blog:
8:09am: Jobless claims to rise following Brexit
9:34am: Big surprise – no sign vote hurting jobshttps://t.co/sRetGSdPkU
— Euro Guido (@EuroGuido) August 17, 2016
It will certainly come as a big surprise to George Osborne. Before the referendum he said that “a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy” which would “lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000.”
There was more good news about retail sales in July: they were up 1.4% on June and 5.9% on July last year. While the BBC were filling the airwaves with messages of woe from “expert” remainers about the collapse of confidence, the rest of us were shopping.
The credit agency, Moody, predicts there will be no recession. It had downgraded the growth forecast for 2017 but has quietly nudged it back up.
The financial data firm Markit offers a cheering Household Finance Index (which measures economic confidence) for August. It has reversed July’s plunge and edged above its level in June:
UK households recover from Brexit hit to confidence on finances, Markit says https://t.co/FJPxSUYr1Y pic.twitter.com/hR31rXpaYY
— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) August 17, 2016
On June 23rd, the day of the EU referendum, the FTSE 250 closed at 17,333. It is now up to 17,846.
How have the chattering classes responded? In fairness to the Financial Times, after a few weeks of sulking, it shows signs of acknowledging reality: “Fall in jobless claims confounds forecast of culls after Brexit vote.”
The way opponents of Brexit in the media have responded shows many are still struggling to make the facts fit their prejudices. So Remain supporters such as Jon Snow of Channel 4, Robert Peston of ITV, and Nick Robinson of the BBC, seize on bad news and ignore the rather more significant positive indications.
If a business reports good results it is “despite Brexit”. If it has bad results it will be “due to Brexit”.
UK jobless benefit claimants unexpectedly fall in July despite #Brexit shock: https://t.co/u91QlTWgh0 pic.twitter.com/uDSsGuPO9E
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) August 17, 2016
EU students in university up 11% – highest number ever recorded – despite #Brexit concerns https://t.co/b8eLjmDiCL #alevelresults
— Indy Students (@IndyStudents) August 18, 2016
The Government has announced that EU funding agreed for British farmers, scientists, and individual projects will be honoured until 2020. The Treasury will pick up the costs. Hardly a very difficult obligation to meet since our net contribution to the EU budget is £10.6 billion a year.
But before the EU Referendum the Stronger In campaign had said: “We would lose vital EU funding for the farming, scientific and medical research and programmes.”
The scattering of honours to Remain campaigners has tended to confirm the cynicism of their dishonest and defeatist propaganda. But some of the recent economic data has been better than even some of those who voted Leave would have dared hope.
There were certainly many who believed that in the long run the UK could become more prosperous with wider trading arrangements, but that there might be some short term cost in a period of adjustment and uncertainty.
It is still early days. There could still be difficulties on the climb to the sunlit uplands. But although the doomsayers have not fallen silent, they have turned down the volume. Project Fear has already been exposed as hyperbole.
There is a growing sense of determination to see a thriving British economy freed to take full advantage of the global opportunities on offer.
