In the week that David Cameron (remember him?) left politics altogether, the size of Theresa May’s personal and political victories are now ever clearer for all to see.
Undoubtedly, the new Prime Minister emerged as the big political winner from Brexit. Britain’s decision to leave the European Union saw May’s rivals scattered to the winds.
Cameron and Osborne: comprehensively discredited. Gove: fundamentally and permanently diminished (even before this week’s poorly-judged KKK “joke” to lawyers behind closed doors) and every serious Tory rival has been conspicuously dispatched or else tied into painful silence by taking a role in the Cabinet.
At this point, it is difficult to see how May’s political capital, power or popularity will improve – which means a general election is surely in the offing, despite her protestations.
Theresa May has ruled out an early general election https://t.co/P2xtlEM85m
— POLITICO Europe (@POLITICOEurope) September 4, 2016
Her inscrutable “Brexit means Brexit” approach to leaving the EU will inevitably diminish her.
On paper, the meaning of Brexit is simple; it means leaving the European Union.
But Brexit will not be delivered, felt or experienced on paper. It will be felt in our economy, in our living rooms, in our schools, hospitals, workplaces and more – the reality of leaving the European Union will touch every aspect of our lives.
Little wonder May will not explain what Brexit means; she would be better advised to try to explain the meaning of life.
The concept of “luck” is similarly difficult to define, but what we all know is that luck, eventually, runs out. The speed of contemporary political change is breathtaking, and makes anything possible.
For these reasons, we should batten down the hatches and prepare for a general election sooner rather than later.
Red meat for Tory right and election early so she gets big majority pre difficult EU negotiations https://t.co/ACkhvA0d75
— Mike Gapes (@MikeGapes) September 9, 2016
Theresa May has undoubtedly observed the consequences of Gordon Brown’s choice not to call a general election upon his ascension to the premiership in 2007. For Labour, and Britain, the consequences of this decision are still being felt today.
As she all but admitted, May cannot explain what Brexit means for Britain. With a wafer thin majority of 12, is it wise for any politician to seek to sell a negotiated exit to the country that is bound to disappoint precisely those she entered politics to please? Let alone those millions who voted to leave for myriad different reasons?
Better and wiser to go to the country as soon as possible and seek the mandate and the moral authority to both define and negotiate Brexit rather than seek to sell the unsellable following the inevitable, incomplete and insufficient compromise with our EU neighbours.
Theresa May is faced with a wafer-thin majority and restive backbenchers spooked by the boundary review.
She has foolishly begun to diminish her political capital with the time-honoured Tory fetish for Grammar schools, and the NHS is rapidly worsening in large part as a result of the policies of her government (we will return to this another time).
Already, a cabinet awkward squad has emerged; sniping, incoherent and featuring David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox. Others are certain to join. The prognosis for future harmony is not good.
In such circumstances, hanging on until 2020 isn’t cautious, it’s reckless – and Theresa May is not a reckless politician.
Jamie Reed is the Labour MP for Copeland. He tweets from @jreedmp
