In yesterday’s interview House of Cards creator Michael Dobbs made the cautious prediction that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump in what appears to be the likely 2016 presidential race.
Today he explains he is excited but concerned by the political scene in general.
“I’m hoping to go to Cleveland for the [July] convention,” he says. “Whatever happens it’ll be an historic occasion and I’ve got to soak up that atmosphere.
“What is happening in the US is no different from what is happening elsewhere. In the West, you’ve got voters saying they’re fed up, that the establishment has not served them well.
MORE: Read Part 1 of our Michael Dobbs Interview
“There’s a tremendous revolt against those elites. Astonishingly, over the last seven years in Europe every government that’s come up for election has been kicked out.
“The causes are complex and we, the political establishment, don’t entirely understand it. In America the average middle ranking family is still struggling to get back to where they were years ago.
“The same is true in Britain. We’ve lost control of borders. We’ve got currency chaos. That’s why you’re getting lots of new parties.
“Trump happens to be a Republican but he could be anything. We have UKIP, there’s Podemos in Spain and Italy has the Five Star movement.”
What does he think is responsible for this change in attitude?
“Social media might have a lot to do with it. It does encourage people to look only at the stuff they know they’re comfortable with. If you pick up any sort of newspaper you’re turning over the pages and you’re not sure what you’re going to get, and there’s that freshness of discovering something you didn’t even know you’re interested in.
“Social media doesn’t have that. You’re in your own little bubble. Changing technology has changed the way we think and possibly the way we respond to things. Social media tends to be exclusive – it pushes away.”
Dobbs is convinced this has triggered the dangerous precedent for “safe spaces” at universities in the UK and US – a topic on which he is passionate.
“Where are we going to stop on campuses which create safe zones?” he asks, bemused.
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“I thought universities were meant to broaden minds to enable people to deal with uncomfortable ideas. I think it’s a disaster. If we go too far with this we’ll undermine what a university is for. It’s not to make students feel comfortable, it’s to train them to deal with a very difficult world out there.
“This idea that someone invaded someone else’s ‘safe space’ because while they were talking they shook their head is bonkers. There are some very serious consequences to closing your mind and barring the door to things you find awkward. It’s usually because people can’t deal with things, so instead of dealing with them they scream and shout. You never get to the bottom of these complex issues.”
There is one issue on which Dobbs is absolutely certain, though – Brexit and the EU referendum on June 23.
He says he was horrified at President Obama’s intervention in the EU debate last month.
“The EU as an institution is failing,” he states. “I am proud to be a European, I love Europe, but I love it for its cultures, not its institutions. Its institutions have failed it. The project developed in the second half of the 20th century as a result of the turmoil of the first half. I understand why, it was a wonderfully idealistic thing, but it has increasingly less relevance to the challenges of the 21st cent, which will require people to be more competitive and flexible.
“I am a huge fan of this referendum. It’s time the people had a say. This is the most historic vote we’ve ever had. At the end of the day I think we will be better off financially, but this is about who we are and what we are and where we stand in the world. It is a political operation more than an economic one.”
Warming to his theme, he lists the reasons why Britain would cope well if the people choose to quit the EU.
“Britain is the fifth largest economy in the world, we have the fourth largest military, we are the second biggest contributor of foreign aid and humanitarian assistance, we had the best Olympics the world has ever seen, we have the finest and most important language.
“And people say we are insignificant and don’t count! If we don’t count, nobody counts. It is an elitist argument that says ‘You cannot do this on your own, you must be run by us, by the system.’ The system has failed. I take no pleasure from that but it’s true.”
His view is simple: “I am not anti-European. It’s just that Britain alongside the EU will be in a stronger position than Britain inside the EU.”