EXCLUSIVE: Evan McMullin Utah Poll: Independent Conservative Ties Trump

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By Louise Mensch | 10:12 am, October 17, 2016

Update: Crosstabs here. (Now no paywall)

The poll of likely voters, conducted Saturday and Sunday by Rasmussen Reports shows a sensational result in Utah, where two points separates the top three candidates. Donald Trump has 30%, conservative Evan McMullin has 29%, and Hillary Clinton has 28%. Gary Johnson has collapsed to 5%, with Stein at 1%.

For both Clinton and McMullin, it is their best showing in the state in any major poll thus far.

750 likely voters were polled by telephone. The presidential preference question was as follows:

If the 2016 Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Conservative Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

Results were:

30% Trump
28% Clinton
29% McMullin
5% Johnson
1% Stein
2% Some other candidate
4% Not sure

The margin of error was 4 points, putting all three leading candidates in a statistical tie. Gary Johnson collapsed from previous polls to just five percent.

An earlier YouGov poll tracker, published by CBS news over the weekend showed Trump with a 17 point lead over Clinton in Utah, but the script only prompted respondents with the names of Trump and Clinton, then only if they selected ‘someone else’ offered them Johnson, Stein or McMullin (McMullin scored 20% in that poll).

Worse news for Trump is his favorable/unfavorable. Trump has unfavorables of 54% (very) and 14% somewhat. His very/somewhat favorables are 12% and 19%.

Clinton has unfavorables that are even worse: very/somewhat splits 60%/12%. Neither have an ‘unknown’ score.

McMullin scores 19% on ‘unknown’. Of the remaining 81% who have heard of him, he takes 22% very favorable and 29% somewhat favorable. Your correspondent’s math is not up to crunching that as a proportion of 81%! McMullin’s unfavorables are 8%/18% on very/somewhat.

Furthermore, Utahns both think that their state will be more important this cycle – 65% – and they approve of their state GOP representatives ditching Donald Trump by withdrawing their endorsement:

4* Do you approve or disapprove of Utah’s Republican leaders disavowing Donald Trump as the Republican candidate in the 2016 Presidential election?

58% Approve
33% Disapprove
10% Not sure

5* When it comes to the 2016 Presidential Election, is the vote in the state of Utah more important than it has been in past elections, less important or about the same?

65% More important
4% Less important
29% About the same

2% Not sure

These questions were asked after the Presidential preference question was put.

Should Evan McMullin and his running mate Mindy Finn, who is Jewish, win the state of Utah, he would be the first independent since 1968 to take electoral college votes.  McMullin and his running mate Mindy Finn have gathered the attention of the national media since they began to make polling strides in Utah. Campaign efforts at the weekend were also targeted at Idaho.

The Heat Street poll bore better news for other Utah republicans. Sen Lee has a massive 57% vote share over his nearest rival.