What does a muddy, rainswept field full of hipsters west of London have to do with the greater battlefield over whether Britain stays in the European Union?
That muddy mire is Glastonbury, “the Coachella of England.” And for the 200,000 young people wallowing in the mud there for the UK’s biggest music festival, democracy and Britain’s place in the world is likely far from their minds.
Indeed, many British kids today are far from their homes and, crucially, their polling stations. Traffic chaos and driving rain at what is being termed the “muddiest Glastonbury ever” could also render a last-minute dash to the polls even more impossible.
i wonder how many people at glastonbury forgot to send a postal vote for tomorrow's referendum ????
— Holly (@hols_bols_) June 22, 2016
And, given that your stereotypical Glastonbury-goer is under 30, city-loving and left-leaning – in other words a classic “Remain” voter – EU fans fear the mudfest could move the needle nationwide.
The fewer festival-goers available to vote, so the argument goes, the more chance that the “Leave” camp will steal a march and win the day. Plans to set up a polling booth at the festival ground in Somerset was shot down for logistical reasons.
It won’t be possible to have an #EUreferendum polling station at Glastonbury 2016. You can register for postal votes https://t.co/N6rF44BKVT
— Glastonbury Festival (@GlastoFest) February 20, 2016
UK voters are all eligible to vote in advance via post if they prefer, taking some of the sting out of the “Glasto effect”.
But Remain voters, especially young ones, are far flakier than the older, more dedicated pro-Leave core.
The Park Tower is looking as beautiful as always… CS pic.twitter.com/do1MvaaY64
— Glastonbury Live (@GlastoLive) June 22, 2016
That means that barriers in their way – like needing to be organized enough to set up their postal vote – are more likely to trip them up.
The results would have to be incredibly tight to swing the polls – but it could happen.
Speaking to The New Statesman of the possibility of a Glasto swing, YouGov pollster Joe Twyman said: “In order for that to happen, it needs to be really close – I don’t think that’s incredibly likely. But you never know.
“Even if all 250,000 attendees were voting the same way, it would still have to be within 250,000 to make a difference.”
