For a while Project Fear appeared to be working. Waverers in this EU referendum were taking a pummelling from assorted “experts” about the supposed perils of Brexit. Doubts seem to set in – the opinion polls showed a shift to Remain.
However, more recently, the polls have shifted back.
It emerged that many of the doom-mongers were in the pay of the European Union. Or that they had shown appalling judgment in the past – with their support for the Euro and the Exchange Rate Mechanism.
So what? Weren’t the polls discredited after the last General Election? Their credibility certainly suffered a jolt. The pundits declared in emphatic tones that a hung Parliament was the only conceivable outcome. Yet the Conservatives emerged with an overall majority.
The political class spent a few months saying that in future the polls should be disregarded as unreliable. But now such virtue has been abandoned and they are again hitting the bottle. The addiction to seizing on the latest survey has returned.
Some expect that in the closing days, the polls will shift back to Remain – as this will be portrayed as the status quo and the safer option.
#Brexit debate heats up, with latest polls suggesting more people want Britain to quit EU https://t.co/XQ37FpfR2f pic.twitter.com/fWWtzx4XIU
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 6, 2016
Often in referendums this has been the pattern. But the Vote Leave campaign has made some effort to challenge this narrative.
Staying in the EU does not mean staying in the same place. It means being on a journey to a European State. With its own flag, anthem, currency, laws, border, army, President, Parliament, taxation…
Britain has travelled a long way since joining in 1973 but the final destination is still some way off.
Another tricky factor for pollsters is “differential turnout”. They try to account for this by asking people how likely they are to vote but responses on this tend to be unreliable – far more people claim to be “certain” to vote than end up getting round to it.
REVISED EU Referendum avg since Purdah (8 polls):
Leave 44.5%
Remain 43.1%
Don't know 11.5%#EUref #InOrOut #Brexit #VoteLeave #StrongerIn— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 6, 2016
Having been involved in local campaigning for Brexit I am convinced that the opponents of EU membership will be the ones showing the greatest determination. We are on a mission to revive our nation. We are ambitious to secure a self-governing, independent democracy that sets its own laws and tax rates. We also want to see an outward looking economy that embraces free trade with countries around the world – not one that is shackled to Fortress Europe.
For us, voting on June 23 is an imperative.
Those backing Remain do not have the same zeal. There may be some who
are true believers in a federal Europe – who still cling to the European ideal. But there is such overwhelming evidence that the EU is a racket that few bother trying to deny it. Instead they tend to acknowledge the EU is pretty awful but warn that trying to run our own affairs would be even worse. That is not an inspiring message to take to a street stall on a Saturday morning – which is why the Remain supporters tend to stay in bed.
Whatever the final polling average shows, I expect Leave will do about five points better.
When we last voted on this issue in 1975, the Common Market was the future. National self-belief was at a low ebb.
Now the passion is much more with those wish to leave. Project Passion could prove the clincher in securing a Brexit victory.
