Just take a look at this sensationally good, simple campaign ad for Johnson-Weld. The spot is called “You In?” and it advocates for government that’s anti-war, socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Bernie Bros should love it – but they may worry about handing the election to Donald Trump. Yet polling says that supporting Johnson can only hurt Trump and help the Democrats. Here’s why.
Take a look at this graph showing Trump’s recent bounce in the polls from Nate Silver’s 538. As we can clearly see, the overall rise of a couple of points for Trump correlates exactly with a small fall for Johnson. Trump’s red line rises as Johnson’s yellow line falls – and vice-vera. Trump’s recent low point on the red line is matched by Johnson’s recent high peak on the yellow line.. If Johnson rises in the polls, Trump falls.
Bernie Sanders supporters may want to know that their Libertarian vote is not wasted. If Gary Johnson gets into the TV debates, in this election, more or less anything could happen – and at 13% of support Johnson is really close to achieving that goal. Bernie Bros would help the Democratic cause hugely by supporting Johnson now.
Furthermore, if they REALLY hate ClinTrump, Bernie Bros for Johnson are voting for a viable alternative in a three way scenario. If Johnson-Weld win Utah outright – and it’s more or less in Romney’s gift – they could deny either Trump or Clinton 270 electoral votes.
Poll: Gary Johnson At 26% In Utah, Three Points From Overtaking Trump https://t.co/g7lsULYDM5 via @LibertarianFutr
— Sunflower (@OneSunflowerGrl) July 26, 2016
UT State Sen. Mark Madsen Switching Parties from Republican to Libertarian, Endorsing @GovGaryJohnson for Pres https://t.co/s5qWDVQTYz
— reason (@reason) July 25, 2016
The election would then go to the House of Representatives, the current, GOP house, many of whom loathe both Clinton and Trump and could settle on Weld as a compromise. It may be a longshot, but Ross Perot actually won a state Bill Clinton’s defeat of Bush 1. Perot made sure that Bush 1 did not win that election. Bernie DNC supporters can rest easy on the data, knowing that they have a long-shot chance of a non-TrumpClin President, but at the same time, that they can’t really damage Hillary or help Trump by rallying to Johnson’s libertarian banner at this stage.
