Last week, the entire Internet was beset with utter panic as the USDA, with the help of the Ohio Pork Council, announced that we were in the throes of a bacon shortage. The cause? A 60-year low in the supply of frozen pork belly, the raw product used to make the Internet’s favorite food.
Forbes called it a “looming disaster.” The Late Show‘s Stephen Colbert predicted that 2017 the last year bacon would be enjoyed during Super Bowl Sunday. ABC News claimed that the Porkpocalypse could “wreak havoc” on breakfast eaters nationwide. NBC New York called it a “bacon crisis.” Even Diet Doctor cried, “What are we going to eat?!”
Just as Donald Trump promised to “make America great again,” the country, it seemed, was running out of bacon.
But the “shortage” isn’t really much of a shortage at all. Yes, we’re in bacon-related trouble, but it’s unlikely to affect your bacon burgers, bacon-wrapped appetizers or, heaven forbid, your “bacon wrapped bacon explosion.” At least—not any time soon.
It turns out, America has a “pork belly reserve” —a strategic bacon supply, if you will—and because of an outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PEDv) that killed around 7 million pigs back in 2012 and 2013, our bacon-hungry nation has had to dip into our emergency stash.
The reserve bacon supply fell by around 60% in 2016, from 53 million pounds to 17 million pounds, triggering those reports of a bacon shortage.
But our fresh bacon supply (also known as pigs), now healthy, keeps on procreating. And producers are on track to supply Americans with 75 million pounds of pork belly per week in 2017—3% more than last year. And more than enough to avoid any blip in the bacon market.
“It’s not as if we’re going to run out of bacon,” one economist told the New York Times. “There’s plenty of hogs coming. There’ll be plenty of bacon,” said another.
So why stoke fears of a bacon shortage? The Ohio Pork Council claimed that it was a bit of a “marketing strategy,” (BaconShortage.com redirects to their website) and as in 2012, when we had our last bacon panic, concerns about a shortage drive bacon prices higher.
We now pay, on average, $6.11 per pound for bacon. That’s an all-time high, up two bucks since the trend began in the early 2010’s, but only up a few cents from 2015.
Bacon-related hysteria is actually a great selling tactic. When sales of pork products began to decline in the 1990s, pork producers began a slow but steady PR campaign for bacon, leading to today’s unabashed Internet-driven love affair with crispy pork.
There’s also an interesting government angle: The National Pork Producers Council, as well as other pork-related lobbying organizations, are trying to get people’s attention ahead of President Trump’s proposed renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA is good for the pig trade, but things could change rapidly for American pork producers if Canada and Mexico are no longer top buyers.
Despite giving hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republican legislators over the years, the NPPC bet on the wrong horse for President, so pork producers are probably not at the Trump bargaining table.
Fortunately for bacon consumers, all this means is that the Internet’s favorite side dish is probably safe. Go ahead, eat the bacon.
