A group of “#NeverTrump” Republicans are trying again to derail the Republican nominee’s chances at the White House, this time with a late-in-the-game third party bid from an ex-CIA agent.
Evan McMullin might be an unlikely Presidential candidate, given that he’s been a career operative rather than a veteran of elective office, but 2016 isn’t a year for traditional campaigns. He’s been everything from a CIA officer to a House Republican policy director, working behind the scenes to bolster conservative intelligence and streamline workable solutions to legislative problems — often in the area of foreign policy.
McMullin plans to file his paperwork Monday afternoon, according to Buzzfeed, and already has several prominent Republican strategists helping to guide his roll-out. Based on commentary from sources close to McMullin’s nascent campaign, this is definitely a strategic, well-thought out response to Donald Trump’s floundering campaign, which has faltered almost continuously since the Republican National Convention and is now nearly 10 points behind Hillary Clinton nationwide.
But while other plans to challenge Trump’s appeal among GOP voters have failed, McMullin’s has infrastructure already built in. McMullin’s team will partner with Better for America, which has been working on ballot access for an independent candidate in 20 to 30 states.
He may have difficulty — relying on litigation — making the ballot on larger Republican states like Texas, but he will be on the list in a few states where his presence will matter. But a source close to the effort tells Heat Street that they have an “aggressive ballot strategy” that they believe will get them “into play even states where the deadline has past.”
In the event he actually wins a few key states, McMullin could send the presidential decision to the House of Representatives.
A lifelong Mormon, McMullin attended Brigham Young University and did a foreign mission trip for the LDS church. That puts him in the same camp as Mitt Romney and Sen. Mike Lee, two leaders of the anti-Trump movement, and at home in one of the single most anti-Trump demographics. With Utah already troubling territory for Donald Trump, McMullin may be able to deny the state to the GOP candidate in a way third party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein never could.
He just needs 1,000 signatures by next Monday to meet Utah’s ballot filing deadline.
That thing where Evan McMullin could cost Trump the presidency by helping flip Utah. pic.twitter.com/B1aftnZINz
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) August 8, 2016
He could also put the pro-life demographic — a group unsure of Donald Trump’s position on the abortion issue — into play in other solidly red states, giving Trump a much harder climb. McMullin is almost a blank slate, publicly, as well, giving him time to build policy on a national stage, unhindered by a social media record, or a slew of op-eds or television appearances.
The concern for McMullin’s team now is whether, if they do succeed, they will be viewed as the most likely scapegoat in a Trump loss. The #NeverTrump movement has been clear that they aren’t pro-Hillary, and that their goal is, primarily, to preserve the last vestiges of a conservative Republican Party from its latest, authoritarian nominee. Actively handicapping Trump in key states could change the way the #NeverTrump movement is viewed.
At this point, though, an independent candidate may be the only way to keep conservatism alive, and #NeverTrump may be willing to take the public relations risk inherent in a McMullin campaign. They are also, a source close to the effort says, concerned that the GOP may need backup, anyway. “They believe that as Donald Trump’s increasing mental instability and erratic behavior increases, there’s the chance he may not even last until November.”
