By the time the presidential primary contests get around to Indiana, they’re usually already decided (the last time it was even in play was 1976). This year, though, the Hoosier state — and its 57 Republican delegates — will have a significant impact on the Republican race for the nomination.
Prepare yourselves for #Primary500, as Indiana natives are calling it.
The Field
The field in Indiana is, at least, slightly narrower than in other states. John Kasich pulled out of Indiana thanks to a Cruz-Kasich agreement to split the remaining states based on expertise.
A significant Cruz victory in Indiana could cut into Donald Trump’s lead, and make it harder for the current front runner to amass 1,237 delegates before July. Both Cruz and Trump have been barnstorming the state, with rallies planned all weekend and into Tuesday. And both Cruz and Trump are debuting “secret weapons” in the state. Trump will be toting around legendary Indiana coach Bobby Knight, and Ted Cruz will roll out Carly Fiorina, in her first test since Cruz announced her as his running mate.
Republican candidates have spent an estimated $5.5 million in Indiana already, more than they spent in Maryland, Connecticut, and Rhode Island combined.
With Bernie Sanders on the ropes, Clinton is re-purposing her advertising budget, pulling television commercials, and focusing on in-person appearances. Since Monday, she’s toured two manufacturing facilities, and she plans on experiencing farm life first hand over the weekend. Sanders will focus on college campuses.
The Voters
Hoosiers are an unpredictable political force. There are rural voters, well-to-do Democrats and Republicans who live within commuting distance of Chicago (along Indiana’s north shore), and folks in manufacturing hubs with lots of blue-collar moderates. There are also lots of social conservatives, who helped elect Indiana Gov. Mike Pence — who has so far stayed out of the fray.
Indiana’s voter landscape is so diverse that each candidate has a fair shot at winning a number of delegates. Trump will do well among Indiana’s blue collar workers. Cruz will do well among rural and social issues voters. Kasich, who isn’t actively campaigning, will likely do well among Indiana’s “Daniels Republicans” (named for the socially moderate but fiscally conservative former governor Mitch Daniels), and among Indiana’s suburban voters.
Unless Clinton makes a significant mistake between now and Tuesday (like, say, calling Indiana “Ohio,” or cheering on any of the Notre Dame rivals), she should be able to pick up voters across the demographics.
The Prize
Thirty of Indiana’s 57 Republican delegates will go to the statewide winner. The rest will go to the winner of each individual Congressional district, three delegates per each of Indiana’s nine districts. Those delegates will be chained to that winner through the first round of voting at the Republican convention in July.
Indiana’s statewide winner, therefore, is likely to come away with a big prize.
