Could Donald Trump win? That appeared to be the subject on major Republican donors minds as they met privately with Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com last week.
The confab, held at New York’s exclusive Le Bernardin Prive restaurant according to The Hill, featured several of the GOP’s most generous financiers, from Chicago Cubs owner Todd Ricketts (whose family famously backed an anti-Trump PAC in the primaries) to Ron Weiser, the finance director of Trump’s Presidential campaign.
According to sources close to the meeting, the main issue was whether Trump could win, and Silver’s conclusions could be summed up in a succinct Tweet from a FiveThirtyEight statistician:
Remember it's entirely consistent to say 1. Polls have tightened. 2. Clinton still leads. 3. Trump can win. 4. Clinton probably will win.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 7, 2016
With the election just 60 days away, donors who have so far waved off requests from Trump’s team might be looking to invest in the last few weeks worth of advertising and coverage (even if the candidate himself doesn’t seem to be). Donors are also likely concerned that down-ticket races are falling off the radar. With Trump commanding the public’s attention, few House, Senate, and gubernatorial races have attracted media attention.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s strategy of waiting out the race seems to be crumbling. The New York Times and others have pointed out this week that Clinton’s negatives are surfacing too late in the campaign to ignore, with her health, her trustworthiness, and her poll numbers becoming an issue just as undecided voters are traditionally tuning in.
Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the election. It's highly competitive, folks. https://t.co/IDN3p4wsz4 pic.twitter.com/hIcskC1rGX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 14, 2016
For his part, Silver insists that he’s not playing favorites by giving an extensive briefing to Trump’s funders and to GOP bigwigs; his speeches are bought and paid for, and available, according to FiveThirtyEight, to anyone with enough money to request one. He told the Hill that he provided no advice on strategy, and only covered what you can already find on his website.
But that doesn’t mean that billionaire coal magnate Joe Craft and Republican brain trust leader Betsy DeVos won’t use Silver’s numbers to make their own strategic decisions. With Hillary seemingly on the ropes, it’s the right time to keep careful stock of how the election could play out.