Apparently the fat lady hasn’t sung quite yet on Marco Rubio’s time in the Senate. As Heat Street reported on Monday, the terrorist attack in Orlando deeply affected Rubio, causing him to acknowledge to radio host Hugh Hewitt that he was starting to reconsider running for reelection.
Now, Heat Street has learned the motivation behind Rubio’s reconsideration: Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, who has been running for the seat with Rubio’s support, encouraged his friend to get back in the race and offered to step aside for him.
Both Rubio and Lopez-Cantera had traveled to Orlando to help coordinate the response and show support for the victims of the attack, which left 49 dead and 53 wounded. While the longtime friends were in town, they had a moment to catch up, and Lopez-Cantera took the opportunity to discuss the Senate race. Seeing the blood at the scene and the traumatized faces of victims’ loved ones and local officials had shaken both men, and Lopez-Cantera thought the moment warranted reevaluating their plans moving forward.
Politico’s Florida reporter Marc Caputo broke the news Wednesday, that Lopez-Cantera felt “compelled” to urge Rubio to run for reelection:
“You should reconsider running for your seat,” Lopez-Cantera told Rubio as they sat in the senator’s pickup truck about an hour before sunset, after witnessing the aftermath of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.
Rubio was caught off guard. After all, Lopez-Cantera has been running for his Senate seat in a crowded GOP primary for more than a year—with Rubio’s encouragement.
Lopez-Cantera made clear he was still fully committed to running, even as he initiated a gut-check moment for both of them. Until then, Rubio had resisted the entreaties of Senate leaders and donors to rethink retiring from the Senate. Lopez-Cantera’s conversation removed one of the biggest obstacles to Rubio running again: a longtime friendship that he wouldn’t want to ruin due to political ambition.”
Rubio himself confirmed the conversation to reporters Wednesday afternoon. As a press gaggle surrounded him in the tunnels under the Senate offices, he rebuffed multiple attempts to ask him about the latest controversial comments from Donald Trump and told reporters he would answer the question once “so the rest of the day can be about Orlando.”
“The report earlier today is accurate,” said Rubio. “Carlos and I had a conversation on Sunday in Orlando before I left. Obviously, I take very seriously everything that’s going on, not just Orlando, but in our country. I’ve enjoyed my service here a lot. So I’ll go home later this week, and I’ll have some time with my family, and if there’s been a change in our status, I’ll be sure to let everyone know.”
Senator @MarcoRubio answers a question on whether he's reconsidering his decision to not run for reelection.https://t.co/qcNzGn3C71
— CSPAN (@cspan) June 15, 2016
Currently, the Florida Republican Senate primary is a crowded field, with no candidate as the clear front runner. In addition to Lopez-Cantera, two Congressmen, Rep. Ron DeSantis and Rep. David Jolly, businessman Carlos Beruff, and former CIA officer Todd Wilcox are all running. With the exception of Beruff’s self-funded campaign that is blanketing the airwaves with ads, the other candidates have had challenges jumpstarting their fundraising—frustrated in no small part by the growing speculation that Rubio may hop back in the race.
Both Rubio and Lopez-Cantera are emphasizing that nothing has officially changed: Lopez-Cantera is running and both camps have argued that he is the strongest candidate to compete statewide in what is likely to be a tough election, due in no small part to Lopez-Cantera’s base of support in vote-rich Miami-Dade County.
The deadline for a decision is June 24, the last day to file as a candidate to represent Florida in the Senate. Lopez-Cantera has not yet filed his paperwork, and seems to be holding off to allow Rubio a few days to consider his options.
Should Rubio decide to get back in the race, he would have to work quickly to create a campaign, but it’s not as uphill a climb as it might seem.
The presidential campaign only increased Rubio’s already high statewide name recognition, and he would be able to draw on the money leftover from that race. The latest campaign finance report shows him with a little more than $3.3 million cash on hand remaining.
Lopez-Cantera also had a major fundraiser scheduled for the evening of June 24, which Rubio was scheduled to fundraise. Because the universe of Lopez-Cantera’s supporters includes a lot of overlap with Rubio people, it would be a simple matter to switch the names on the invitation and hold the exact same fundraiser as planned, just directing the checks to a different campaign account.
Polling has also shown Rubio as the strongest competitor against Rep. Patrick Murphy, the likely Democrat nominee, who is known as a moderate and has the backing of the Democratic establishment.
However, there’s certainly no guarantee of a Rubio victory—especially with Trump possibly depressing Hispanic Republican turnout—and the Democrats responded to Wednesday’s news with some posturing of their own, declaring an intention to drive tens of millions of dollars into defeating Rubio. “If Rubio wants to suffer the humiliation of losing FL twice in the same year, we will be happy to oblige him,” tweeted Max Steele, communications director for the Florida Democrats.
If Rubio wants to suffer the humiliation of losing FL twice in the same year, we will be happy to oblige him. #FLSEN https://t.co/9YVQ4gfdFx
— Max Steele (@maxasteele) June 15, 2016
The political implications are clear: like many of the Republican contenders swept aside by the Trump tsunami, Rubio is looking ahead to 2020, and losing reelection to his Senate seat could prove fatally crippling to that ambition.
Even if Rubio decides not to run, the ripple effect from this news still likely travels in the direction Rubio wishes: to benefit Lopez-Cantera. Both Rubio and Lopez-Cantera’s names have been headlining the political chatter for the past few days, sucking up all the media oxygen from the other Republican contenders. The other candidates have been lucky to even get a sentence or two mentioning them, and for nothing other than being asked what they will do if Rubio gets back in the race.
It’s a brutally tough spot for these candidates, but there’s little they can do about it. Caputo reported on some skeptical chatter than Rubio and Lopez-Cantera had planned to strike a deal all along, but both flatly denied it and there’s just no proof. The tragic attack in Orlando obviously could not have been predicted, and interviews with Rubio and Lopez-Cantera over the past few days clearly show them deeply affected by what they witnessed. Trying to argue that they weren’t actually moved by the experience just won’t work.
The next few days can now play out two ways. If Rubio announces he is running, as the incumbent he will immediately get the infrastructure and financial support of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Many of Lopez-Cantera’s supporters, staffers, advisers, and donors have previously worked for or supported Rubio, and could quickly transition to him.
Rubio also still has a large network of supporters statewide from his presidential campaign who were heartbroken after he dropped out, and still frequently post on social media in support of him. He’ll also command a day or two of the Florida press spotlight, as once again the remaining Republican candidates are asked if they’ll be dropping out of the race or not.
Alternatively, if Rubio announces that he is not getting in the race, most assume that he would take that opportunity to officially endorse Lopez-Cantera and urge Republicans to unite behind him. This announcement will again monopolize the Florida press spotlight and put further pressure on the other candidates.
Follow Sarah Rumpf on Twitter: @rumpfshaker.
