Sen. John McCain is skipping the GOP convention this summer, but it doesn’t seem to be out of fear that he’ll be forced to witness a Trump nomination.
At least, not totally out of fear he’ll be forced to witness a Trump nomination.
McCain is facing a serious primary challenger and a serious Democratic challenger, and, as he told reporters yesterday, he just can’t afford to take the time off, especially given that the Arizona primary (for the legislative ticket) happens after the convention. “I have to campaign for reelection, and I have always done that when I’m up,” McCain said. “We have a late primary in Arizona.”
McCain always has Republican challengers—he’s been a top target for the Tea Party since his 2008 election—but this time, it’s a Democratic challenger who is making life rough for the five-time Arizona Senator. According to Real Clear Politics, he’s in a literal dead heat with his Democratic opponent Ann Kirkpatrick, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee smells blood.
One drawback of going so long in the nomination process is that the Republican Party has had no ability to shore up so-called downticket races, and while conventional knowledge is that everyone hates Donald Trump, Ted Cruz doesn’t fare much better. It turns out, both Republicans—and the voting population at large— just isn’t all that crazy about the presumptive Republican front runners. That’s bad news for contested House and Senate races, like McCain’s, where Democrats could take advantage of the “enthusiasm gap” and look for wins in notoriously difficult districts (though, by all accounts, the Democrats’ front runner isn’t exactly lighting anyone’s fire, either).
That hurts even stronger candidates like New Hampshire’s Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The DSCC will pour $8 million into unseating her in favor of Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan and $10 million into picking up the seat Marco Rubio will vacate when he drops out of politics after this cycle to spend more time tooling around on his fishing boat.