Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States. Yes, it’s true Bernie Sanders has put up a surprisingly stiff and ongoing challenge. The 74-year-old Vermont socialist has raised more money, from more people than anyone expected. He’s won 15 contests (and counting!) against one of the strongest non-incumbents to ever run for the presidency.
But it’s not enough. Sanders is too far behind Clinton. In terms of pledged delegates, Clinton leads by more than 250. Throwing in super delegates, Sanders falls behind more than 700 delegates. And it is delegates who select the nominee, not 25-year-old wannabe revolutionaries.
As the pundits are fond of saying, the math doesn’t lie. It is (nearly) impossible for him to catch up.
Which means now we can play Washington’s favorite parlor game and predict who the Democratic vice-presidential nominee will be this time around. The immediate truth is that no one is perfect. Each possible candidate offers plenty of good and some bad.
Here are ten likeliest to get the nod:
1. Bernie Sanders. With each primary he wins, Sanders quietly makes his case. His impressive showing has exposed certain weaknesses in Clinton: foremost, she does poorly with white men and youth. Sanders, by contrast, does exceptional with these groups, plus the committed and growing left-wing of the Democratic party. The downside for Sanders is that he’s a self-avowed socialist. And Clinton has in the past been too cautious to make such bold and perhaps risky moves. But Clinton will need Sanders’s voters to compete in the general election, and adding him to the ticket is one way to solve that problem.
2. Elizabeth Warren. The other way to get the Sanders Democratic primary voters is to select the senior senator from Massachusetts. But Warren has never proven to be a particularly deft politician, and she’s certainly never proven to be one ready for the national stage. After all, she barely beat Republican Scott Brown in 2012–now a prominent Donald Trump endorsee–in her very liberal state.
3. Julián Castro. Six months ago, Castro was the conventional wisdom pick in Washington to be on Clinton’s ticket. Unfortunately for the young Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary, a recent series of articles have come out and demonstrated how young, craven, and ambitious the 41-year-old former San Antonio mayor truly is. The other seismic change in the last 6 months: It’s even less likely Hillary Clinton will need a Hispanic on the ticket to galvanize the Latino vote. Why? Two words: Donald Trump. The likely Republican nominee will galvanize Hispanic voters—as historic numbers come out to vote against the Republican.
4. Tom Perez in the running offers similar positives as Castro: young and Hispanic. And since Obama currently has a job approval rating 52 percent, it’d make a certain amount of sense for Clinton to sell herself as a continuation of Obama’s presidency. Perez would help in that mission. And it doesn’t hurt that Perez is respected among progressives and, one could even say, socialists.
5. Tim Kaine. He’s a former Democratic National Committee chairman, which means he can raise money for Hillary Clinton. The general election promises to be a $2 billion campaign, most of which will be spent to nuke the Republican candidate. A full-time fundraiser would come in handy. That’s especially so for one with Southern roots who could ensure Virginia says blue and perhaps have influence over the direction of North Carolina, a swing state within reach.
6. Sherrod Brown. What’s not to like about a senator from Ohio, the most important swing state in the union? And it helps that he’s got a likable personality. Brown would give Clinton a certain amount of credibility when attacking free trade agreements – the same ones her husband approved as president. That’ll come in handy against Trump, as he’s made trade a signature issue in his own presidential campaign.
7. David Petraeus. For one, they share a lawyer – David Kendall, who represented the general when he was prosecuted for his own mishandling of classified information. But more importantly, they share weaknesses, but not strengths. The most successful and respected general in a generation could appeal to the white lower- and middle-class voters Donald Trump is trying to secure himself.
8. Robert Gates. Likewise, the former George W. Bush-appointed secretary of defense got along well with Clinton when they served side-by-side in the Obama administration. (Gates was the only cabinet-level holdover from the Bush administration.) But more importantly: like Petraeus, he offers a sharp contrast with Trump. Serious, thoughtful, measured—just the qualities the likely Republican candidate does not have. And with his national defense background, Gates would likely attract white voters that have so far this election cycle been elusive for Clinton.
9. Tom Steyer. If the Republicans are going to have a billionaire on the ticket, why shouldn’t the Democrats? Steyer has poured millions upon millions into Democratic races. How nice would it be for Hillary Clinton if he spent his own money getting the two of them elected? Sure, it’s a stretch. But there’s a monetary payoff involved. And in the past that’s been a motivating factor for Clinton.
10. Claire McCaskill. An early endorser of Obama in 2008, McCaskill might help attract the disaffected Obama and Sanders voter. She’s also proven to be a savvy pol, getting herself elected and reelected in a mostly red state. Moreover, McCaskill offers to Clinton what Al Gore provided Bill Clinton: a doubling down on the good qualities that Hillary Clinton brings to the general election. She’s smart, studious, articulate, and, let’s face it, a woman. Against Trump, a woman-woman ticket could help drive historic numbers of women to the polls for Clinton-McCaskill, which would surely mean Democratic victory.
Truthfully, McCaskill and Elizabeth Warren probably aren’t the only female senator to be considered for the Clinton ticket. Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, Washington’s Maria Cantwell, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, and New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand (should Clinton register with her D.C. address) have compelling cases to be on the Democratic ticket.