Every election, there’s a slate of “swing states:” usually middle American states that have moderate-to-conservative populations who switch back and forth from Republican to Democrat depending on the political climate. These states are the golden ticket in close races, usually the difference between winning and losing Presidential contests.
In most years, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Colorado and Minnesota are the biggest prizes. This year, though, both candidates are taking a unique approach to handling swing states. Both parties’ candidates have record negatives, new voter demographics are emerging, and states that have long been solidly blue and red are replacing traditional swing states as top priorities.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are both focusing heavily on Nebraska and Maine, and while Clinton is pulling out to unexpected leads in “solidly red” places like Georgia, Trump is losing ground in traditional Republican states like Utah and Arizona. Even Texas, according to the pollsters at FiveThirtyEight, is in play.
If this holds, it’d be the first time since George Washington that a candidate won the entire East Coast (incl D.C.) pic.twitter.com/lHKuVoVxuj
— Aaron Wiener (@aaronwiener) August 8, 2016
So why the weird maps?
Maine and Nebraska look like they’re solid colors: blue and red, respectively. But neither Maine nor Nebraska is a winner-take-all state. The states award two electoral votes to the candidates who win overall, but also award one electoral vote per Congressional district to the winner of that district.
So while Clinton may pick up solidly blue parts of Maine, Trump could still pick off Maine’s blue collar workers, fishermen and other union workers who favor his protectionist trade policies. In Maine’s second district, Trump and Clinton are neck and neck. In Nebraska, Clinton is using native multi-billionaire Warren Buffett to rile up Democratic voters in major cities, like Omaha.
In a numbers game, especially if the game is close, every electoral vote will count. They will be especially important if the Presidential race becomes a three- or four-way race with no clear winner in November, forcing the final decision by the House of Representatives.
In 2008, Barack Obama shifted voter demographics considerably, empowering more young and minority voters than ever before, bringing a new, untested demographic into play for political leaders, and making Democrats competitive against an aging Republican voter base. That’s also having an impact on how Trump and Clinton are faring in some key areas.
Trump is losing Utah because he’s unpopular with Mormons—the largest religious group and voter bloc in the state. In Arizona, Trump runs up against historically low approval numbers among Hispanic voters, who make up an increasingly large voter population in the state. (This despite the fact that several high-profile politicians in Arizona, like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, have been on the front lines of the anti-immigration movement.)
Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake also says the Republican-leaning population feels the need for real solutions for immigration, and recognizes Trump’s threat to “build a wall” simply won’t work. “We in Arizona realize that we’ve got to have meaningful immigration reform—you can’t just throw out platitudes out there about a wall and Mexico paying for it and be taken seriously here,” he told media last week.
In Georgia, Clinton is reaping the benefit of a changing electorate as well. Georgia has tended left-ward in the last few state-level elections, and Atlanta, an urban metropolis, is gaining a larger share of Georgia’s political clout. And unlike other states, Democrats don’t need reliable white, Republican voters to shift the state to blue. Moderate policies—and the Clinton family name—still resonate.
With one (or two) more candidates in the presidential race—Libertarian Gary Johnson and independent Evan McMullin—the dynamics could shift even further. Both McMullin, who went to Brigham State University, and Johnson have a shot at Utah, and could prove spoilers in some Western and Midwestern states.
These changes won’t be permanent, but they will make the 2016 Presidential contest very hard to predict. And if you support Trump or Clinton, it should make the last 100 days of this contest very exciting.
