Hillary Clinton has a new strategy to pick up votes in the general election: appeal to Republican women. But if she wants to pick up some of the pieces of a fractured GOP, she’s going to have an uphill battle.
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According to the Wall Street Journal, Clinton made outreach to Republican women the centerpiece of recent campaign stops in suburban Virginia, under the theory that suburban women are more moderate than the current GOP — especially with Donald Trump as the nominee — and therefore a ripe target for a party-jumping general-election vote.
It’s natural for Clinton to think that she can weasel her way into right-leaning hearts. After all, while most married women — especially religious women — were Republican hardliners in the 2012 election (they supported Romney over Obama by 7 points), Trump is striking out with the ladies. Almost 70% of women voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, and in a head-to-head matchup, only 30% of women would vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton. A full 40% of suburban women have a positive view of the former Secretary of State, meaning she could improve on Obama’s numbers.
It hasn’t helped Republicans that Donald Trump keeps talking about how terrible women are, whether he’s ragging on Heidi Cruz for her looks or telling rally crowds that “women have it easy.” He doesn’t quite seem to have his messaging to the female vote down. His approach to female voters seems to be best described as “confrontational.”
But while stats play into Clinton’s favor, political gravity may not be so amiable. Hillary Clinton struggles with women — all women, not just those who lean rightward. Her focus on women’s issues has failed to take off, mostly because women don’t view Hillary Clinton’s gender as an automatic advantage in addressing things like health care and job security. And while Clinton has spent the majority of her time banging the drum on things like reproductive rights and the so-called wage gap, women are consistently adamant that the economy, terrorism, and national security are among their top priorities.
Hillary Clinton can’t even inspire confidence among Democratic women on those issues, so she’s simply relying on the idea that Republican women will be so disgusted with Donald Trump’s demeanor that they’ll make the flip. It’s a gamble, but with many of the Democrats’ target demographics lethargic in their Clinton support, Republican women may be the only hope she has.
