Gary Johnson seems to have reached critical mass in his national poll numbers, evening out at 7% in the latest CNN poll and at 10% in the latest New York Times poll—which is not great news for the third-party candidate looking for a spot on the debate stage.
But with 20% or more of the electorate self-reporting as “undecided,” Johnson’s hopes are far from faded. With Johnson at even 7%, he’s still performing better than most previous third-party candidates, and is unlikely to lose support before election day.
The campaign has, now, shifted to a public relations full-court press to give Americans—and particularly young voters—the opportunity to hear from the Libertarian candidate.
According to the campaign, while Johnson’s national numbers have flattened out, he’s a force to be reckoned with in key states, where both Trump and Clinton are struggling to take any lead. In his home state of New Mexico (and in toss-up Utah), Johnson is pulling in a quarter of the votes.
In his worst state, Massachusetts, he’s still above 10%.
Recent days have seen a flood of op-eds calling on the Commission on Presidential Debates to include Johnson in their roster, touting a Quinnipiac poll that says nearly two-thirds of Americans would like Johnson to square off with Clinton and Trump.
Johnson’s main problem is that he’s unlikely to be President—and both campaigns have, at least subtly, tried to make the case that a vote for Johnson (or any third party) handicaps their chance to win.
Based on evidence from prior elections, the theory is without merit, though recent analysis from FiveThirtyEight seems to show that Clinton—not Trump—fares worse when a third-party candidate (any third-party candidate) enters the race. A recent NBC poll shows him pulling former Sanders voters, and affecting Clinton enough that it could be in Trump’s best interests to suggest that Johnson join the debate.
Johnson’s best argument there is, of course, that 2016 is more unpredictable than any election in recent memory: If he’s allowed to debate, he believes, his position in the race could alter dramatically, as his name recognition rises, and voters are given a chance to compare his policies to those of the two front-runners.
The Libertarian Party announced Wednesday morning that they’re starting a $1 million television and radio ad push in key states, and have already begun native Internet advertising and billboard placement across the American West, where Johnson is strongest. Johnson also says he’s working on an “elevator pitch” to sell himself to voters in 60 seconds or less.
If that fails, Johnson could always pull a Kanye West and simply walk out and debate in New York, without ever having been asked. It’s not like he actually needs to respect authority. He’s a Libertarian, after all.
