While the Eurocrats are still reeling from 2016’s Brexit vote, there is little sign that 2017 will do anything to restore their composure.
Across the continent various anti-establishment forces are stirring. They have opportunities to make themselves apparent in Dutch elections in March, French elections in May, German elections in September and Czech elections in October. We might well have Italian elections as well.
In Holland the latest polls have shown Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party ahead of the governing PVV (confusingly called the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy). It is an anti-immigration party which has been boosted by efforts to restrict it. Last year Wilders was taken to court for saying he wanted ‘fewer’ Moroccans in the country.
There is also the much smaller Forum for Democracy led by Thierry Baudet. It is a new and rather more mainstream Eurosceptic body – it might only get one or two seats but if it could crank up to half a dozen it could have a crucial role in coalition negotiations.
France has, of course, seen plenty of attention for Marine Le Pen of the Front National and her Presidential prospects. But while the polling suggests she is likely to make the final, it also suggests she will then lose by a wide margin. The indications are that she would be beaten by François Fillon, the Republican Party candidate noted for his Thatcherite economic views, or by Emmanuel Macron, a centrist candidate who has established his own political organisation En Marche!
Incidentally Marine Le Pen offers an example of the uselessness of those political labels the French gave us: “left wing” and “right wing”. She combines a state interventionist platform of high tax and spending alongside an anti-immigration message. There is also support for “Frexit” – certainly of France leaving the Euro and perhaps quitting the EU altogether.
So a second round clash between Fillon and Le Pen would leave socialist voters with something of a dilemma. That leaves some uncertainty. We also need to accept the unreliability of opinion polls – how many “shy” Front National supporters are there? I would still be surprised if she made it to the Élysée Palace. On the other hand even Fillon has made some mildly Eurosceptic noises about the European Commission having too much power and money. So even his victory would represent a little more crumbling of the EU’s empire.
In relative terms the German elections look less dramatic. Angela Merkel’s CDU is in the lead, with the social democrats in second place. But the Eurosceptic party Alternative for Germany is currently polling 13%. That is well up on the 4.8% it won in the last elections in 2013.
The response against the insurgent forces in these countries has been muddled. Part of the effort from the authorities has been to deny them free speech – which has, of course, backfired. But then another tactic from Governments in those countries has been to copy them, at least in rhetoric.
Thus we have Angela Merkel calling for a ban on the burqa – it is already banned in Holland, France and Belgium. Rather a cynical gimmick. Countries that have lost control of their laws and borders due to EU membership grasp at a gesture of telling people what they are allowed to wear.
So as with the UK, there are different types of continental Eurosceptic. Some are in the angry UKIP mould. Others are in the more outward looking frame of mind as represented in Britain by Conservative politicians such as Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Dan Hannan.
The election results will vary but I will hazard a prediction about the overall impact this year. The European Union will be facing an existential crisis. “Take back control”, which was the message from the UK in 2016, is resonating ever more widely in other member states. The more disdain the Eurocrats show for the people, the more the revolt will spread. If the EU thought 2016 was difficult, its politicians and bureaucrats should prepare themselves for much more of the same message this year.