Donald Trump’s ties to Russia have had a major effect on the election – but once again, Florida may be the key – and perhaps it’s Trump’s ties to the Castro regime that could sink him there once and for all.
Hillary Clinton campaigned with Alicia Machado in the Sunshine State on Tuesday – and a late-breaking poll explained why:
Yes – a new poll listed a large 8 point lead for Clinton in the state, out of line with other recent polls showing the race there much tighter. But the interesting thing for poll wonks was that this poll asked the question of those who have already voted, per the Secretary of State.
Florida law records the registered party affiliations of those who vote early. The pollster included 311 already-voteds inside a larger sample of 708. The early vote was huge for Clinton, with Trump having a slight advantage in the yet-to-vote.
Crucial to this lead was the fact that 28% of those Republican affiliates who said they had already voted were voting for Clinton.
In Florida, the GOP has a large Hispanic base. Marco Rubio is leading his Senate race by six points. Trump, however, has been dismissive of Hispanics, calling Machado ‘Miss Housekeeper’ and he has been working to break the Cuba embargo as he tried to throw up hotels under Castro.
Older GOP Cuban-Hispanics hate Donald Trump on Cuba.
Documents show that the Trump company spent a minimum of $68,000 for its 1998 foray into Cuba at a time when the corporate expenditure of even a penny in the Caribbean country was prohibited without U.S. government approval. But the company did not spend the money directly. Instead, with Trump’s knowledge, executives funneled the cash for the Cuba trip through an American consulting firm called Seven Arrows Investment and Development Corp. Once the business consultants traveled to the island and incurred the expenses for the venture, Seven Arrows instructed senior officers with Trump’s company—then called Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts—how to make it appear legal by linking it after the fact to a charitable effort.
Here is the memo about Donald Trump’s Castrogate, breaking the Cuban embargo: it’s pretty clear.
In general, Hispanic voters could prove a giant headache for Trump this year. They are registering more and voting more in early voting than in 2012. Romney’s loss to Obama was narrow in the popular vote and large in the electoral college, and many blamed it on a drop in Hispanic support.
— Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) November 1, 2016
However, Florida analyst Daniel Smith noted that a drop in black voter enthusiasm post-Obama could hurt Clinton in Florida.
Florida voting participation rates – Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties. pic.twitter.com/ZzH2efaE5R
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 2, 2016