Hillary Clinton’s poll lead has narrowed – but her actual early voting lead looks to be incredibly solid in must-win states.
Nevada, which Democrats had worried they might lose, seems to be coming in clearly ‘lean Democratic’ according to actual early votes.
The forecaster Harry Entern on 538.com pointed out in a tweet ‘our model is based on polls’ and not early voting – suggesting that Clinton might heavily outperform her polls.
But the latest blog from Nevada expert Jon Ralston suggests that Nevada is almost too far gone for Trump to take it now. If Ralston’s analysis is correct, there may be a systemic error in Nevada polls undersampling harder-to-reach Latinos.
Remember folks – this is an analysis of votes cast, and not a prediction. Nevada allows already voted to be tallied by party registration, and had the same procedure in 2012, providing a baseline. Ralston:
All the rurals still not in, but a deep dive into the Clark numbers soul leave Republicans feeling…blue.
Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it’s almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.
If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.
the early vote in Nevada suggests Clinton is relatively safe there….
many more Democrats than Republicans have voted in early balloting. Through early Tuesday, 43 percent of early and absentee votes have been cast by registered Democrats and just 37 percent have been cast by registered Republicans. Democrats have a lead in the number of raw votes of greater than 30,000 out of more than 500,000 votes cast, which is about 50 percent of all votes cast in the 2012 presidential election.
So if Clinton does take Nevada, what does that mean for Trump’s chances in the general?
If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada.
Unless there are seriously strange voting patterns going on, this is just about over here for Trump.
Harry Enten notes at 538.com
If Trump were to lose Nevada, the polls-only model gives him just a 9 percent chance of winning the election. It’s a near must-win for him, as most swing states are.