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Retired blogger Andrew Sullivan has written a blistering cover story in New York magazine laying out the “extinction level” threat Donald Trump poses to our nation’s democracy.
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Part of what makes the thought of Trump winning the GOP nomination so scary, Sullivan argues, is that Trump is by no means guaranteed to lose to Hillary Clinton in a general election.
Sure, it doesn’t seem very likely based on national polling data and Trump’s horrendous favorability ratings. However, as Sullivan points out, we’re still a long way from November, and Hillary’s favorability numbers aren’t that much better. Trump, in fact, would have a “worrying strong argument” against putting another Clinton in the White House. Sullivan explains:
His proposition is a simple one. Remember James Carville’s core question in the 1992 election: Change versus more of the same? That sentiment once elected Clinton’s husband; it could also elect her opponent this fall. If you like America as it is, vote Clinton. After all, she has been a member of the American political elite for a quarter-century. Clinton, moreover, has shown no ability to inspire or rally anyone but her longtime loyalists. She is lost in the new media and has struggled to put away a 74-year-old socialist who is barely a member of her party. Her own unfavorables are only 11 points lower than Trump’s (far higher than Obama’s, John Kerry’s, or Al Gore’s were at this point in the race), and the more she campaigns, the higher her unfavorables go (including in her own party). She has a Gore problem. The idea of welcoming her into your living room for the next four years can seem, at times, positively masochistic.
Despite all his shortcomings, Trump is not a conventional Republican. His moderate stance on a host of social issues would make him harder for Democrats to attack. If Trump does win the nomination, he is likely to pivot even more to the center, and say anything that he thinks might help broaden his appeal. He is certain to attack Hillary from the left on a number of issues, such as trade and the Iraq War; his attacks on “crooked” politicians and the moneyed special interests they serve is one that resonates with many voters.
Hillary is presumably (and understandably) thrilled at the prospect of facing Trump in a general election, but it’s worth asking if she is truly prepared for the circus that’s barreling into town. Hillary lacks both the natural charm and political skill of her husband, who promises to be a recurring figure in Trump’s attacks. Speaking of “positively masochistic” scenarios, this is how Hillary reacted when she thought the Bernie Sanders campaign was treating her unfairly.
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Of course, this doesn’t even take in account the fact (which Sullivan declined to mention) that Hillary Clinton is currently under FBI investigation for the potential mishandling of classified information on her home-brew email server. An indictment, though unlikely, is still within the realm of possibility. What then? Can we really count on Joe Biden to ride to the rescue?
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