Chelsea Manning Fallout: Will Julian Assange Make Good on his Promise to Surrender?

President Obama’s decision to commute the sentence of convicted leaker Chelsea Manning has shifted the spotlight to Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks and recipient of Manning’s illegal document dump.

Last September, Assange stated via the official WikiLeaks twitter account that he would “agree to US prison in exchange” for a Manning clemency. Now that the Obama administration has acted in Manning’s favor, it remains to be seen whether Assange will keep his word.

What’s also unclear is what crime Assange would be extradited for. He’s currently facing prosecution in Sweden on sexual assault allegations. During a 2010 visit to Stockholm, Assange is alleged to have raped one woman and molested another. Following the issuing of an arrest warrant by Swedish authorities, Assange fled to London, where he’s been holed up in the Ecuadorian embassy since 2012.

But the U.S., which has been bedeviled for years by WikiLeaks, may have far bigger fish to fry with Assange than the Swedish allegations. Just a few months ago, WikiLeaks roiled the U.S. election by publishing the private emails of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta.

Even as the U.S. fumed over the Podesta leaks, WikiLeaks stated again this month that Assange would agree to US extradition “If Obama grants Manning clemency”.

If he arrives on US soil, Assange would likely be prosecuted by the US for his involvement in publishing millions of secret government documents. Swedish authorities will also be able to move forward with their own case against him.

Neera Tanden, a Hillary Clinton hardliner who featured unflatteringly in the Podesta leaks, expressed her glee at Assange’s promise to face extradition. Many others doubt his sincerity, but suggest that incoming President Trump could either commute his sentence (if prosecuted) or pardon him entirely.

Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor who fled to Russia and leaked US documents, tweeted his support for Obama’s clemency for Manning with an unironic “Thanks, Obama.” He also thanked everyone who campaigned for her release.

Assange, likewise, did the same—but he has yet to make good on his promise. We’ll see if he does.

Ian Miles Cheong is a journalist and outspoken media critic. You can reach him through social media at @stillgray on Twitter and on Facebook.