Donald Trump has only a few more chances to lock down the 1,237 delegates he’ll need to snag the Republican Presidential nomination. But with Ted Cruz hot on his heels, and taking advantage of state convention rules to secure loyalist delegates, New York’s April 19th primary has become a must-win for the real-estate tycoon.
The last brokered GOP convention took place in 1952, though the 1976 Republican primary between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford was hotly contested, as Republicans played with the idea of nominating the post-Nixonian consolation prize winner, whose most notable accomplishment was not always hitting his head on the doorframe of Marine One. (Unsurprisingly, Ford lost that contest to Jimmy Carter, who spent most of his term in office proving that yes, you could do worse than Gerald Ford.)
To avoid a repeat performance, Trump is looking to crush his opponents in the Empire State, which has 95 Republican delegates to offer. Likewise, Hillary Clinton, who could earn 291 delegates, wants to make sure her adopted “home state” stays in her corner.
Delegates
Of the 95 Republican delegates, 81 are awarded by Congressional district, three delegates per district, based on the number of votes cast in each district by registered Republicans, who had to declare their party allegiance by March 25 (something at least two of Donald Trump’s kids failed to do). If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in an individual district, that candidate gets all three delegates from that district. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote (but more than 20% of the vote), the delegates are apportioned out—two to the top vote-getter and one delegate as a consolation prize to the runner up.
The state also has 14 at-large delegates, eleven of whom will be chosen at the state Republican convention on May 25 (the other three are RNC members). If one candidate takes more than 50% of the overall popular vote, he or she wins all 14 delegates. If no candidate takes 50% of the vote, the delegates are apportioned out based on vote percentages, to any candidate getting less than 50% but more than 20% of the vote.
As with many states, there is potential for Cruz to place his own loyalists among the state committee-elected delegates. Though the 14 at-large delegates will likely go to Trump, those delegates are, as in other states, bound to the New York winner only through the first ballot. If Trump fails to clinch the nomination, he could face the same mass exodus of official support in New York, as he has elsewhere (though the New York state party is rumored to be less enthusiastic about Cruz than Republicans elsewhere).
The Democratic system is more convoluted than the Republican system, if that’s possible. Instead of three delegates per Congressional district, each district has between five and seven delegates, and those delegates go to the winner of each Congressional district. Eighty-four additional delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins the state outright. Forty-four other delegates are “Superdelegates,” who are not bound to the state’s election outcome, and can vote for whomever they want, and change their minds as often as they want until their vote is actually cast at the convention.
The Candidates
Right now, Donald Trump is on track to clear the statewide 50% mark, giving him all of New York’s delegates and putting him far closer to clinching the Republican nomination. In a distant second is John Kasich, and in a slightly-further-behind third is Ted Cruz. Right now, according to a Fox News poll released this weekend, Trump is ahead with pretty much every New York voter demographic, even the “very conservative” voters who put Cruz over the top in Wisconsin.
If Cruz can work hard enough this week to roll back ire over his “New York values” comments, made early in the primary, he may still be able to pull into second ahead of Kasich. Nine percent of New York GOP voters are still undecided as of Monday, April 11, and while Trump’s supporters are die-hard (83% of those voting for Trump are secure in their decision), about 23% of GOP voters are open to changing their minds.
Right now, in order to win New York, Cruz would need a miracle—but there’s still time for him to earn some favor by, say, auditioning for Hamilton or recreating his favorite scene from Sex in the City (bonus points if he tries to catch a bus in a tutu).
For Democrats, the field is narrower. Of course, Hillary Clinton has already earned the unwavering support of a dozen or so of New York’s Superdelegates, with up to 40 Superdelegates likely to take their blood oath in the next few days at the behest of the Democratic National Committee.
She also has a double-digit lead over Sanders in the popular vote, and could clear 50%. For Sanders, there is still a path to victory through Manhattan, where young urban voters could still give him a boost. The only problem? New York, unlike Wisconsin, is a closed primary, so if college students forgot to register as Democrats, one of Bernie Sanders’s most reliable voting blocs—people who don’t pay taxes—may fail to materialize.
In order to compete with Clinton in the national delegate count, Sanders will have to win New York by a landslide 20 points. He’s probably not going to do that. But The Bern, like all vaguely itchy communicable diseases among college students, has the potential to spread quickly.
The Bottom Line
For Bernie Sanders and John Kasich, New York could be a last hurrah—though, to be fair, neither of them have let reality stand in the way of their respective campaigns.
