The Associated Press came out with an “exclusive” on Monday, claiming that HB2 — the North Carolina “Bathroom Bill” that says you have to use the bathroom corresponding to the gender on your birth certificate — is irreparably harming the state. But the numbers just don’t add up.
The AP’s exhaustive report argues that the law will cost North Carolina an estimated $3.76 billion in lost business over the course of the next twelve years, and that the state has already suffered financially from HB2.
What, specifically, are the damages? So far, North Carolina has apparently lost an estimated 2,900 jobs that would otherwise have come to the state; a shot at hosting the NCAA Final Four some time in the next several years; and one Ringo Star concert.
The biggest blow came from PayPal, who decided to scuttle plans for a new facility in the state, which could have given North Carolina around $2.66 billion in speculative tax revenue, and employed around 400 people.
And then there are the ineffable concepts like “good will” which the AP believes will lead to more, unquantifiable economic damage.
But it’s not until deep in the story that the AP gets around to admitting the reason why their heavily researched exegesis on the evils of HB2 was probably just a big waste of time: North Carolina’s economy is booming.
Even if the AP’s projections are correct, and the HB2 fallout last for more than a dozen years (and people really do care that Ringo Starr didn’t play a concert), the impact on North Carolina’s economy is negligible at best. A drop in the toilet bowl.
North Carolina, the AP acknowledges way down in its piece, is the nation’s 9th largest state, has its 10th fastest-growing economy at more than $500 billion per year – and all but a smattering of the large companies who call North Carolina home haven’t left.
And North Carolina is anticipating mongo growth to come; although PayPal won’t be setting up shop, many of the corporations within the state’s borders are expanding. And while the NCAA will take its Final Four elsewhere, a major, multi-national equestrian competition is expected to bring in $250 million to the state’s economy.
Ironically, some of the credit for all this growth may go to the very same legislators who passed HB2.
The “Bathroom Bill” was the product of North Carolina’s deeply conservative legislature, which for the last several years had an iron grip on government and turned the state into a laboratory for conservative ideas. Many of the legislature’s aggressively pro-growth, pro-business polices are being credited for NC’s booming growth, low unemployment, and general climate of prosperity. That’s billions and billions more in state coffers than would ever be lost due to the “Bathroom Bill”, which for many legislators is a matter of principle, not economics.
Indeed, the very lawmakers who rammed through the HB2 and incurred, perhaps, a modest ding in a robust economy are the same lawmakers whose policies have allowed NC to thrive.
The Republicans narrowly lost the governorship in 2016, even though Donald Trump swept the state. The reason was likely all the noise over the “Bathroom Bill”, which has cost the NC GOP dearly. The dethroned governor, Pat McCrory, is even complaining that he can’t get a new job because of HB2.
The bill, eventually, will go away when legislators work out a compromise to let it die with dignity. But that’s because HB2 has become an embarrassing distraction, not because it’s an economic albatross. HB2 or no HB2, corporations keep knocking at North Carolina’s door, even if the NAACP and GLAAD (and Ringo Starr) say they’ll never visit again.