The 2015-16 NBA season has officially ended and the offseason is here for all 30 teams. Thursday’s NBA Draft is one heckuva way to kick off the summer, and free agency will be right behind. There’s a lot going on in the league over the next few months.
Here’s our assessment of the five most important and/or interesting storylines taking us through the offseason.
This is by far the most important question facing a handful of teams right now, not the least of which is the Thunder. At moments during this season and through OKC’s playoff run, Durant’s departure looked like a foregone conclusion. Then, the Warriors series happened. Durant and Russell Westbrook led OKC to a 3-1 series lead over Golden State, looking set for the NBA Finals. The Warriors stormed back, but it was impossible to ignore the positive feelings emanating from OKC’s run. The supporting cast stepped up, putting the lie to the idea that the Thunder are woefully under-equipped to fight the best teams. This spring proved that Durant could win a title with the Thunder.
But it might be more likely in Golden State, or San Antonio or … well, probably in just those two places, unless the wackadoo Cavaliers sign-and-trade scenario I posited actually materializes. If Durant elects to stay in Oklahoma, the Thunder will be legit title contenders going into next season. If Durant leaves for the Warriors or Spurs, that team will become an overwhelming favorite, barring something else crazy happening. If Durant decamps for an East squad — like, say, the Wizards, Celtics or Heat — LeBron might feel some pressure on his run of Finals appearances.
There’s an interesting subplot here: how long will Durant commit? There have been suggestions that Durant will sign a 1+1 contract, which is essentially a two-year deal with an opt-out in the summer of 2017. This is what LeBron did in Cleveland and it’d help Durant make even more money next year when the salary cap takes another big leap. But will Durant actually pull the trigger on such a deal given his recent foot injuries? It’s worth watching.
The Warriors failed to repeat as champions despite a 73-9 regular season. In the immediate aftermath of Game 7, franchisee Joe Lacob promised to be aggressive. Durant is clearly the top target, but Golden State is sure to be active even if KD stays in OKC. Dirk Nowitzki’s name has popped up (he’s not leaving Dallas this close to retirement … is he?) and I suspect names like Al Horford, Joakim Noah and maybe even Hassan Whiteside will be bandied about. Lacob doesn’t seem like a boss who will be satisfied with merely tinkering right now.
What happens to Harrison Barnes and, to a lesser extent, Festus Ezeli will be interesting, too. These guys will figure into Storyline No. 4 below.
Cleveland might be aggressive, too. Kevin Love had a key defensive play late and was solid overall in Game 7. He also had a good regular season. Still, the Cavaliers could use that salary space and talent base more effectively by turning Love into a wing defender and some cost savings.
Cleveland would be justified sitting back and running the same roster (minus free agent Timofey Mozgov, allegedly retiring Richard Jefferson and possibly Matthew Dellavedova) out there in October. But seeking improvement even after the ultimate success could position the Cavs better for 2016-17.
If San Antonio doesn’t get Durant, is there a secondary big move to make? Tim Duncan’s clocking is ticking loudly. Tony Parker got destroyed by Westbrook. Can the Spurs spin their system and cap sheet out for someone like Mike Conley or Horford? Is that desirable, or should the franchise continue to focus on finding more cost-effective complementary pieces to fit around Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge?
Just as with the Cavaliers and Love, the Thunder could justify bringing the Durant-Westbrook-Serge Ibaka core back. But what if they decided to test the Ibaka market to add a three-and-D wing? So much intrigue with this team.
The Process is dead, the Colangelos are in control and 20-win seasons really have to be a thing of the past. By all accounts, Philadelphia will take Ben Simmons No. 1 overall and could trade either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor, possibly for Boston’s No. 3 overall pick. That’s not the move of a team desperate to win more games.
But the offseason is young. Philly will almost assuredly chase a point guard, both because Bryan Colangelo’s greatest NBA successes have come with strong point guards (Steve Nash, Jose Calderon and Kyle Lowry) and because it was clear last season how badly the young Sixers needed a floor general to help develop them. If the Sixers trade for No. 3 and take Kris Dunn, all bets are off. Either way, the point guard of the future (near or otherwise) will be acquired this offseason.
It remains to be seen how much further down this line of thinking Colangelo will go. Philly has plenty of assets to leverage in trades for veteran talent if he wants it, and there will be a class of free agents who don’t get the money they want from good teams. The Kings managed to get three mid-tier free agents a year. It could happen for Philly. Is that the plan?
Sam Hinkie has repotted himself elsewhere, but the Sixers are as fascinating as ever. Free Joel Embiid!
The Lakers are in a fascinating position themselves. The common practice at this point would be to let D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and (in all likelihood) Brandon Ingram develop out from under the shadow of Kobe Bryant. But Jim Buss is under a timetable to turn the team around before his sister takes over the franchise’s basketball operations. A change of hands might result in Mitch Kupchak’s dismissal. So Buss and Kupchak have a mutual interest in getting the Lakers back to the top right this second as opposed to building a new superpower organically over time.
As with the Sixers, there are some forces pushing the Lakers to speed up the rebuild. Will they do it?
Lots of teams have lots of cap space, thanks to the revenue boom hitting the league this summer. But the free agent class is relatively weak. It’s usually a bad idea to spend for the sake of spending. Odds are some teams will keep their powder dry and avoid making major mistakes. But not everyone.
The Magic look poised to chase a big few names (Chandler Parsons?) after coming close to landing Paul Millsap a year ago. The Lakers could make a run at some free agents, perhaps Barnes, who will be a bellwether for team decision-making. He’s a restricted free agent, and their situations usually develop later in July than do the unrestricted FAs. But he’s a young wing with high upside and legitimate question marks, especially after a nightmare NBA Finals.
Teams that throw offers at Barnes are going for broke this summer. Teams that throw offers at Marvin Williams and Bismack Biyombo are going for broke this summer. We’ll know soon enough.
Under the surface of this massive cash party will be, hopefully, good progress on a new labor deal for the league.
Either the players’ union or the franchisees can opt out of the current labor deal before July 1, 2017. There have been lockout rumblings since the day the two sides signed this deal, ending the last NBA lockout in 2011. The massive cash infusion provided by the new national television broadcast deal has added to the stakes. Every percentage point in the revenue split matters a little bit more.
Plus, both sides have new leadership. Things have been mostly amicable, as Adam Silver is seen as a players’ commissioner and as Michele Roberts cleans up the incredible fragmentation within the union. We’ll see if that survives the first real threat of adverse action as 2017 approaches.
There’s no huge incentive for either side to find a deal in principle or even make major concessions right now. Despite what the Cavaliers showed in the Finals, it’s tough to buckle first and come back all the way. But Silver and Roberts appear to be ready to do the work necessary early to avoid a disruptive stoppage. What happens this summer on that front is critical to preventing drama in 2017.
This article was written by Tom Ziller from SB Nation and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network.