How quickly things can change.
When the Golden State Warriors announced Monday that star Stephen Curry would miss at least two weeks with a sprained MCL, it looked like Chris Paul’s Los Angeles Clippers were poised to take advantage of Curry’s absence and finally advance past the second round of the playoffs. But in a cruel twist, Paul suffered a broken right hand in the Clippers’ 98-84 Game 4 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, destroying any sense of increased optimism.
More will be known about Paul’s injury after he’s re-evaluated on Tuesday, but it’s hard to see him returning to the lineup. ESPN’s J.A. Adande reported after Game 4 that the point guard will “most likely” be out the rest of the postseason, and that sentiment was echoed by Dan Woike of the Orange County Register. While it’s not definite, it sounds like we’ve seen the last of Paul in a Clippers uniform this season.
Quite simply, this injury is a disaster if Paul is indeed finished.
Paul is the straw that stirs the drink in Los Angeles. The Clippers operated at their peak offensively throughout the regular season with their star point guard on the floor; in total, they were over 16 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than on the bench, per NBA.com. Little has changed in the playoffs, as Los Angeles is more than 23 points per 100 possessions better with Paul on the floor through the first four games against Portland.
While the Clippers have done an admirable job fighting through key injuries in recent years, including winning a playoff game on the road against the Houston Rockets last year without Paul, there are three other issues in conjunction with this broken hand that spell doom.
1. Blake Griffin isn’t himself
Griffin was a monster in the 2015 postseason and he notched a triple-double in the win over the Rockets without Paul. A healthy Griffin could take on a huge usage load and step into more of a point forward role without Paul.
The problem is that player isn’t available to the Clippers right now. Not only did Paul suffer a broken hand on Monday night, but Griffin made a trip of his own to the locker room because of soreness in the same left quad that kept him out for a good chunk of the season. He’s been trying to shake off rust since his return at the end of the regular season, but has failed to regain his form.
Clippers head coach Doc Rivers called Griffin “50/50” for Game 5, which means that even if the power forward does suit up, he won’t even be close to 100 percent. Looking further ahead, it’s hard to see Griffin ever getting back to his peak performance in these playoffs thanks to this injury.
2. J.J. Redick is also hurting
If things weren’t bad enough, one of the NBA’s best shooters is dealing with a heel issue that will bother him for the rest of the playoffs:
In addition to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin injuries, JJ Redick said his left heel will be an issue for rest of playoffs. Awful day for L.A.
— Alex Kennedy (@AlexKennedyNBA) April 26, 2016
After a solid first two games of the series, Redick shot 5-of-23 overall and 3-of-12 from long range in Games 3 and 4. He clearly hasn’t been operating at 100 percent, and a foot injury like his throws off a shooter’s rhythm. It’s hard to zip through those maze of screens with a bad heel.
Redick’s mere presence improves the Clippers’ spacing even if he’s slumping, but without Paul, the Clippers desperately need Redick to knock down shots as well.
3. The bench is as unreliable as ever
The Clippers’ bench has been a trouble spot for years, and it remains that way. While Jamal Crawford won Sixth Man of the Year for a record third time this year, his victory was thanks to his reputation and a few memorable high-profile performances, not his overall performance. Crawford has had some notably rough postseason performances in recent years and defenses will only key in on him more without Paul.
There have been other flashes of strong play from Clippers bench members, but there are still too many question marks. Austin Rivers isn’t really a point guard and is known for questionable decision-making, even though he’s improved this season. Jeff Green is infamously inconsistent. Paul Pierce has been a corpse all year. Cole Aldrich, Wesley Johnson and Pablo Prigioni, though often effective, aren’t striking fear into the hearts of anybody. They must all take on much larger roles with Paul out and Griffin gimpy, yet none have shown the ability to step up consistently this year.
Is there any chance for the Clippers to prove us wrong?
The Clippers have to win two out of three against the Blazers to advance, and two of those three games will be at Staples Center if the series goes the distance. That may not mean much if both Paul and Griffin are out, but it’s at least something. Furthermore, a healthy DeAndre Jordan is still a formidable man in the middle, although he naturally hasn’t been as effective when playing without Paul this season.
It’ll be a tall order to get past Portland, but if that happens, the prize is likely the shorthanded defending champs. While missing Curry for most or all of the series would be a break, the absence of Paul is arguably more significant. Curry is a better player, but the Warriors without Curry are better than the Clippers without Paul even at full strength. When you consider Los Angeles’ other injuries, the gap widens.
Barring several miracles, this Clippers’ season is going to end before the conference finals yet again, which leads to major questions about their future. Before the season, team president and head coach Doc Rivers told ESPN’s Zach Lowe that he believes teams can get “stale.” The core of Paul, Griffin and Jordan is now staring down a fifth straight season in which they failed to get past the second round.
“We’re right on the borderline,” Doc Rivers tells Grantland during a long sit-down at his office. “I have no problem saying that. I’m a believer that teams can get stale. After a while, you don’t win. It just doesn’t work. We’re right at the edge. Oklahoma City is on the edge. Memphis, too. We just have to accept it.”
It’s unclear if a freak injury like Paul’s will delay or accelerate the breakup process, but Rivers has already thought about breaking up this group and going in a different direction. Griffin trade rumors ran rampant at the deadline, and those trade winds will likely start blowing again with the star power forward set to hit free agency in 2017.
But while it sounds nice in theory to just trade Griffin (or even Jordan) for a bundle of assets, the presence of Paul complicates the situation. As Lowe wrote:
But the Clippers can’t just deal one of them for future assets as long as Paul is around. A 30-year-old point guard with a history of knee issues can’t wait out a step backward.
A Paul trade could be explored as well, but that may mean a total roster makeover, and his age and injury history may dock his trade value. This is the fifth straight postseason in which Paul suffered some sort of injury.
These were not easy questions for the Clippers before Paul’s latest ailment and they are even more difficult to answer now. This broken hand destroys the Clippers’ present while also shaping their future. These will be some murky waters for Rivers to navigate.
This article was written by Jason Patt from SB Nation and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network.
