With Art Briles out, his athletic director sanctioned and Baylor’s assistant coaches seemingly likely to finish the 2016 season — if that makes any sense — the discussion about the school can begin to include the state of the football program.
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This is a sports-centric website, so suggestions about what should happen to Baylor’s power structures are best left to the people who have covered this story from that angle in the greatest detail. And SB Nation’s Baylor blog Our Daily Bears knows the community and has drawn deserved praise for its clear-eyed coverage.
As for football, there are many ways to show how Baylor now finds itself in dire straits on the field thanks to systemic woes elsewhere.
Despite major improvement, Baylor was only beginning to recruit like a national power. Recruiting now gets much harder.
Before Briles arrived in 2008, Baylor’s last 10-win season was in 1980, and that was its only 10-win season ever. Its last eight-win season was in 1991.
Now the Bears haven’t won fewer than eight games since 2010, and have four 10-win seasons in their last five.
But Briles’ exit makes it easy (for opposing coaches) to argue (to recruits) that Baylor was a flash in the pan. The Bears had never finished in the top 25 in the 247Sports Composite class rankings until placing No. 17 in 2016. They finished within the top 30 a few times under Briles, though, and that was a giant leap from where they were.
Baylor finished 77th in 2007. The best class Baylor had under previous coach Guy Morriss finished 54th. Briles’ Baylor never had a class worse than 55th — and that 2008 class was underrated, given that it included Heisman winner Robert Griffin III and future NFL wideouts, none of whom were considered top-250 recruits.
The Bears no longer have the coach responsible for helping those players become stars. The job security of the remaining staff is up for debate, at minimum. That’s going to make recruiting, already tough for a historically forgettable program in a state with four other Power 5 teams, even harder.
Baylor will likely strengthen its vetting process for recruits and transfers, in light of the dozen or so players accused of violence against women. Narrowing the talent pool is an unavoidable side effect.
And if Baylor won on the margins in recruiting by taking calculated risks on rougher players, that is not an option going forward.
That best recruiting class in school history? It could lose many of its best players before they make it to campus.
It would be reasonable for any Baylor player to consider transferring. Classes for Baylor’s first full summer term don’t begin until May 31. If a player wanted to be eligible for a scholarship at a new school as soon as possible, it might behoove him to avoid the red tape of enrolling and withdrawing.
Most of Baylor’s 2016 recruits haven’t yet reported to campus. And while they might need to get releases from their National Letters of Intent, logic says that would be little more than a formality. (Would Baylor really try to prevent any students from changing plans, given the findings of university-wide failures, and risk further public relations damage?)
The 18 summer enrollees in Baylor’s 2016 class include top-50 prospect Patrick Hudson, an offensive guard. Saturday, ESPN’s Gerry Hamilton reported Hudson is not planning to enroll on Monday.
Sunday, four-star offensive tackle JP Urquidez announced he’s back in the market.
I will not be Enrolling at Baylor University tomorrow morning… Thank you Baylor Nation for the continuous support!
— JP Urquidez (@JP_OT2016) May 29, 2016
Rivals are reportedly targeting Hudson and signee Parrish Cobb, a four-star cornerback.
Four-star running back signee Kameron Martin will reportedly reopen his recruitment to schools like Missouri, despite a “BU” tattoo that covers one of his biceps.
NBC’s Dallas-Fort Worth affiliate reports four-star receiver and track star Devin Duvernay “wants out” and four-star defensive end Brandon Bowen “may not make it to Waco.”
At least a couple have affirmed they’ll enroll, but if BU were to lose those six four-stars, its 17th-ranked 2016 class would be more like a class ranked in the 40s.
And the 2017 class has already lost almost everything. But its biggest decommit could still be yet to come.
Prior to Thursday, Baylor had six commits for 2017, three of them four- or five-star players. Baylor had the No. 34 2017 class, fifth in the Big 12.
By day’s end, the Bears had lost tight end Kedrick James, one of those blue-chippers.
Due to the departure of Coach Briles, I’d like to open my recruiting and decommit from Baylor. Thank u Baylor staff esp Coach Lebby & Bedell
— Kedrick James (@kedrickjames044) May 26, 2016
Friday, three-star defensive tackle Jayden Peevy decommitted, also citing Briles’ exit.
Saturday, Peevy’s Bellaire High teammate Donovan Stiner, a three-star safety, and four-star receiver Hezekiah Jones followed.
No interviews please……. pic.twitter.com/WVCCgdtzbf
— 9️⃣ (@_hezekiahh) May 29, 2016
Quarterback Kellen Mond was already Baylor’s most important commit, a four-star just outside the nation’s top 100. He attends IMG Academy in Florida with a smattering of future stars. He reacted to Briles’ exit with a frowning emoji.
Mond told Bud Elliott that he had not heard any negative recruiting about the situation from other staffs prior to the firing. As for his recruitment, he’s not rushing.
“Not sure how it will affect my recruitment, and won’t know until I talk to my parents more in depth about the situation,” he said.
Mond’s Twitter account has since reshared graphics showing him in Auburn and Ohio State gear, plus retweeted the following:
Anyone notice @TheKellenMond still committed to Baylor . I give it a week. Any bets?
— 4⭐️ (@WhosThatGuy4) May 29, 2016
The class has thus fallen from No. 34 to No. 70, with only Mond and three-star athlete Jalen Pitre (a Stafford High teammate of Jones) still committed.
A handful of other players considering Baylor chimed in, including four-star Texas RB Eno Benjamin, former Baylor commit Jhamon Ausbon, and big-time Lone Star State LBs like Anthony Hines III.
So glad I made the right choice and decided not to pursue Baylor. Smh
— Eno Benjamin™ (@eno_benjamin5) May 26, 2016
nooo way https://t.co/xdLCPb0bgQ
— Jhamon Ausbon (@TheJhamonAusbon) May 26, 2016
You CANNOT base your decision on a Head Coach. The College football world is too unstable.
— Anthony Hines III® (@TheAntHines_Era) May 26, 2016
As for players already on the team, an exodus doesn’t seem to be in the works right now.
Star receiver KD Cannon announced he isn’t going anywhere.
BAYLOR IS MY HOME AND THATS WHERE I WILL STAY AND FINISH MY COLLEGE CAREER
— 9_MBC (@IAmTheOne_9) May 28, 2016
Promising running back Terence Williams announced the same.
I’m not going anywhere
— Terence (@TW22_BU) May 27, 2016
Rising senior quarterback Seth Russell, Baylor’s likely starter, seems to be staying put, though he’s been in Brazil doing missionary work.
Sophomore-to-be Jarrett Stidham, however, was and is Baylor’s long-term hope at QB, and his talent more closely parallels that of Griffin III than Russell or Bryce Petty. He’d been tight-lipped on Twitter, and it made all the sense in the world for him to find a school where he could start, but he took to Instagram on Monday to confirm that he will return to the school.
A photo posted by Jarrett Stidham (@jarrett_stidham3) on May 30, 2016 at 1:21pm PDT
It was necessary to fire Briles. But cleaning house now, rather than a year or two ago, is likely to damage the program more than a swift response would have.
The 2016 season and 2017 recruiting cycle represented golden opportunities. Briles had two potential Heisman candidates who would compete to be his starting quarterback and maybe his best wide receiver yet in Cannon. He might have topped 2016’s best recruiting class in school history in 2017, especially with instability at Texas A&M and at Texas.
Not only is Baylor now less stable than either of those programs, any open Power 5 jobs in Texas could make it even harder for the Bears to hire a quality head coach. Houston’s Tom Herman is likely to be the nation’s hottest coaching prospect; while he’d almost certainly jump to either Texas or A&M, the thought of any top coach taking over a Baylor in disarray is preposterous.
A similar Kobayashi Maru scenario is what led to Penn State hiring Bill O’Brien from the NFL, then watching him bolt after two years. Penn State, though, has history. It is its talent-rich state’s dominant program. Baylor is anything but that.
Had Baylor engaged in the soul-searching it is now doing back when women reported sexual violence to coaches, or when the first person sounded the alarm that the university was ill-equipped to handle such allegations, it would not be in quite this predicament.
Baylor’s failures to do the right things at the right time mean the football program is now hamstrung, likely for some time.
This article was written by Andy Hutchins from SB Nation and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network.
