Two weeks ago, the Los Angeles Rams pulled off a blockbuster NFL draft trade by sending a bunch of picks to the Titans for the No. 1 overall pick. They need a quarterback, and by shipping a ton of picks for the top pick, they ensured nobody can select a quarterback before them.
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Last Wednesday, the Philadelphia Eagles pulled off a blockbuster NFL draft trade by sending a bunch of picks to the Browns for the No. 2 overall pick. They want a quarterback, and they think there are two good ones at the top of the draft, and by shipping a ton of picks for the second pick, they ensured nobody can grab the second-best of the two quarterbacks in the draft before them.
Of course, it will take years to see how each trade works out. However, history suggests it’s rarely a good idea to trade up for a quarterback, and draft analysts suggest nobody in this draft is good enough to trade up for.
The wild, risky decisions made by the Rams and Eagles at the top already make this one of the stranger drafts imaginable. But their moves don’t just affect themselves: The entire first round of the NFL draft is going to be a little bit weirder because of the Rams and Eagles.
Everybody from 3-6 is lucky as heck
The Rams and Eagles want quarterbacks, but pretty much nobody thinks that a quarterback is the best or even second-best player in the NFL Draft. Our ranking of the top 300 players in the draft has Cal’s Jared Goff fifth and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz seventh, as do CBS’ rankings. NFL.com’s rankings have Wentz seventh and Goff eighth. Sports Illustrated’s rankings have Wentz seventh and Goff 14th. ESPN’s rankings have Goff 11th and Wentz 12th.
Regardless of these rankings, these quarterbacks are going to go first and second. The upshot of this is the teams below the Rams and Eagles are going to get incredible value. They’re going to get players you normally have to go 2-14 for without having to go 2-14.
The Chargers pick third. They need offensive line help, as Pro Football Focus ranked them last in pass blocking, second-to-last in run blocking and in the bottom five in penalties committed. Good news, Chargers! Laremy Tunsil, considered by some the best overall prospect in the draft, will be available at No. 3.
Some people say Jalen Ramsey is the best player in the draft. Some people say Joey Bosa is. Both of these players will be available to the Dallas Cowboys at 4. One will be surely available to the Jaguars at No. 5. If other players — running back Ezekiel Elliott, OT Ronnie Stanley, DE DeForest Buckner — join the mix, players regarded by some as the best player in the draft could be going as low as sixth or seventh.
We often find out years later that the best player in a certain draft was one of the ones passed over at No. 1. But this year is a bit different: most draft analysts already agree that the best player in the draft is getting passed over at No. 1 and No. 2. Somebody’s going to get a steal.
Everybody else’s quarterback decisions are going to get weirder
Goff and Wentz getting picked first and second doesn’t change the amount of teams that need — or at least want — quarterbacks in this draft. But it might change when those quarterbacks get taken.
Some mock drafts show a total of five quarterbacks selected in the first round — Goff, Wentz, Memphis’ Paxton Lynch, Michigan State’s Connor Cook, and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg.
There probably aren’t five quarterbacks in this class worthy of a first-round pick. In fact, somebody who has analyzed Christian Hackenberg a lot more closely than I have thinks his inaccuracy and inability to read plays mean he might not even be worth a seventh round pick. That viewpoint is probably a little extreme, but there’s enough evidence to argue it while others are arguing he should go off the board in the first round.
The dichotomy of opinions on Hackenberg kinda tells the story of all the quarterbacks in this draft. It’s a tough-to-read group that may produce a great quarterback, or may produce a few guys who top out at mediocre. And yet, we’ve already seen two teams sell out for the opportunity to take a QB earlier than most teams would. We’re probably going to see more.
This article was written by Rodger Sherman from SB Nation and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network.
